Polymarket odds of U.S.-Iran extending 60-day negotiation period drop to 5%, down 27% this week

According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in the Polymarket market "Will the U.S. and Iran extend the 60-day negotiation period?", the probability of an extension has now dropped to 5%, down 27% over the week.

Per the market's resolution rules, if both the U.S. and Iran officially announce through their respective channels before 23:59 ET on August 20 that they have mutually agreed to extend the negotiation period, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Anonymous leaks, third-party reports, or statements merely indicating a possible extension will not be counted.

Previously, the U.S. and Iran announced in June that they had reached a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), under which both sides agreed to negotiate a final agreement within a maximum of 60 days, with the possibility of extending the negotiation period by mutual consent.

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