Over $120 Million Wagered on Bitcoin's 2026 Price, Probability of Hitting $70,000 Reaches 68%

Odaily News: Bitcoin was trading near $63,500 around 1:30 PM ET on August 12, 2026. Across six active markets on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi, cumulative bets have exceeded $120 million, with traders placing wagers on Bitcoin's future price movements.



Polymarket's largest Bitcoin price market has seen trading volume of approximately $52.1 million, with a 68% probability of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 by the end of 2026 and a 79% probability of hitting $60,000. The same market assigns probabilities of 51%, 32%, and 17% for reaching $75,000, $80,000, and $90,000, respectively.



Polymarket's market for August 2026 has seen trading volume of nearly $5 million, with probabilities of 70% and 81% for Bitcoin reaching $65,000 and falling to $62,500 that month, respectively; probabilities for hitting $67,500, $70,000, and $75,000 stand at 38%, 17%, and 3%. Polymarket also gives a 9% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 within 2026.



Kalshi data shows a 12% probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before January 2027, with probabilities of 3% each for reaching $150,000 and $200,000. Polymarket uses Binance's one-minute BTC/USDT candlestick data, while Kalshi uses the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin real-time index; their settlement rules differ. (Bitcoin.com News)