中金：建议继续超配黄金

Odaily News, CICC research report states that we believe the two narratives that have been suppressing gold are being disproven. First, global liquidity has not truly entered a tightening cycle. As US inflation falls and growth slows, the economic fundamentals support a shift toward monetary easing. Waller is a "hawk in dove's clothing," and Fed reforms may open space for future rate cuts. Second, "de-dollarization" is not over. Waller's "balance sheet reduction" policy objectively helps restore confidence in the US dollar, but this policy faces multiple constraints from financial markets and politics, making its implementation highly uncertain. Meanwhile, high debt, high deficits, and policy uncertainty may structurally erode dollar credibility in ways that are difficult to reverse.

Global central banks' net gold purchases rebounded to 289 tonnes in Q2, up 62% year-on-year, marking an all-time high for the second quarter. This reflects deep-rooted concerns among global central banks about the dollar, and reserve diversification will continue to support gold demand in the medium to long term. As global liquidity becomes more accommodative, upward pressure on real interest rates and the dollar eases, and gold may regain dual support from liquidity and monetary system diversification. We believe the gold bull market is not over, and the window for re-adding positions after the recent correction has opened. We recommend continuing to overweight gold.