Polymarket odds of "AI bubble bursting within the year" drop to 19%, down 5% in 24 hours

Monitoring from the PPP Prediction Market Tool shows that on Polymarket, the probability of the "AI bubble bursting within the year" has dropped to 19%, a 5% decrease in 24 hours.

According to the resolution rules, the market will only resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences at least three major negative events within a specified period, all occurring within the same 90-day window. Trigger conditions include: Nvidia (NVDA) stock falling 50% from its all-time high, the SOXX semiconductor ETF falling 40% from its all-time high, OpenAI or Anthropic filing for bankruptcy, OpenAI being acquired, H100 GPU rental prices dropping below $1 for five consecutive days, and major AI hardware suppliers such as TSMC, ASML, Broadcom, Arista Networks, or Super Micro Computer seeing their stocks fall 50% from all-time highs.

Previously reported, the fund Situational Awareness, managed by AI stock guru Leopold Aschenbrenner, sold off its entire public stock portfolio due to liquidity pressure, with Citadel as the buyer. However, the market believes this forced liquidation could accelerate the deleveraging of AI trades and serve as a signal for some investors that short-term risks in the AI sector have been released, potentially stabilizing the market.

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