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The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 77%

2026-07-05 23:01

According to data, the probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate in July is 77%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike is 23%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 41.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 47.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 10.5%.