Analyst: Current active BTC investors under 20% loss on average, cyclical adjustment still ongoing

Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that currently, active Bitcoin investors are floating at a loss of about 20% on average, and market sentiment is in a "devaluation" phase, but has not yet reached the deep pressure levels typical of historical bear markets.

Darkfost pointed out that the True Market Mean (TMM) is currently around $76,700. This indicator reflects the average cost basis of active circulating BTC supply (excluding coins that have been dormant for a long time, potentially lost, or illiquid). Historically, this level acted as a significant resistance zone in May, where some investors chose to exit the market without incurring losses or with minor losses. Meanwhile, the AVIV Ratio (Active Value to Investor Value) is currently around 0.8, meaning active investors are down approximately 20% from their cost basis. In contrast, during historical bear markets, this indicator typically drops to 0.5–0.6, corresponding to a deeper drawdown of about 40%–50%.

Analysis suggests that in this cycle, the entry of institutional funds and ETFs has not changed Bitcoin's cyclical nature; the market continues to operate within its own structural framework. Although significant devaluation pressure is already evident, it may not necessarily need to fall to historical bear market extreme levels to trigger a rebound. Overall, cautious judgment regarding cyclical fluctuations remains necessary.