Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Tesla will launch Robotaxi service in California before December 31"

PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "Tesla will officially launch a Robotaxi service in California before December 31, 2026."

If Tesla officially offers an autonomous taxi service to the public in California before the end of 2026 that does not require continuous human driver intervention, it will be judged as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be "No."

Tesla continues to advance its autonomous driving and Robotaxi布局, but regional progress shows clear divergence. Currently, in parts of the U.S. (such as Texas), it has already conducted more aggressive unmanned mobility tests and planning, while in the California market, it remains primarily constrained by a stricter regulatory framework. The California DMV and CPUC have established a multi-stage approval process for commercial autonomous driving operations, involving multiple hurdles such as road test data, remote safety operator requirements, and commercial passenger permits.

At present, Tesla's operations in California are mainly limited to supervised autonomous driving features (FSD Supervised) and have not obtained a commercial Robotaxi license for fully unmanned operations. In contrast, its "Cybercab" and Robotaxi commercialization path is widely considered by the market to be prioritized for deployment in regions with more lenient regulations, leaving California's progress with high uncertainty.

Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing takes place.