三个月“入熊”概率67%？美股“双重背离”罕见同时出现

According to Odaily, several key indicators in the U.S. stock market have recently shown a rare simultaneous divergence, prompting institutions to reassess market risks. On one hand, the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq has clearly diverged; on the other, the semiconductor sector continues to hit new highs, while the "Big Seven" tech stocks that have long led the market rally are noticeably lagging behind. Multiple institutions believe that both of these signals appeared near major historical market tops, warranting close attention from investors.

However, analysts also emphasize that the current market environment does not fully replicate that of 2021. At that time, the chip industry benefited from the recovery in demand for consumer electronics after the pandemic, while the current rally is primarily driven by artificial intelligence infrastructure construction. Companies in the high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and data center supply chains have become the biggest beneficiaries. As capital expenditures continue to rise, the free cash flow of major tech companies is under pressure, and the market is beginning to pay more attention to whether AI investments will ultimately deliver returns. This is also a key reason for the recent pressure on tech leaders. (Jinshi Data)