Bitcoin's June correction triggers $8.6 billion in options "out of the money," with 80% of positions nearing expiration and potentially amplifying volatility

Odaily Odaily reports that data from market data platform Deribit shows, as Bitcoin continued to decline in June, the options market expiring this month has experienced a significant imbalance. Approximately $8.6 billion in notional value of BTC options are out of the money (OTM) and face the risk of expiring worthless.

Data indicates that of the approximately $10.6 billion in options open interest expiring on June 26, only about 20% are in the money (ITM), with the remaining 80% currently in a loss-making state. Analysts point out that this structural imbalance could trigger concentrated hedging adjustments by market makers and traders before expiration, potentially amplifying short-term market volatility.

The current market Max Pain price is approximately $74,000, about 14% higher than Bitcoin's current spot price of around $65,000. Theoretically, this price level means the maximum number of option contracts would expire worthless. Therefore, as expiration approaches, it could create an upward pull on price, though the effectiveness of this mechanism in the crypto market remains debated.

Additionally, the option market's bullish and bearish structures are relatively close, with a Put/Call ratio of approximately 0.87, indicating increased divergence in market sentiment. Among these, about $450 million in positions are concentrated in the $60,000 put options, while the $80,000 call options also form a key resistance level of approximately $406 million.

Analysts believe that with the quarterly expiration approaching, concentrated exercises and hedging adjustments could become significant drivers of short-term price volatility, and Bitcoin may face a more pronounced directional window. (CoinDesk)