Analysis: Bitcoin’s Push to $80,000 Stalls, Derivatives Data Suggests Declining Market Risk Appetite

Odaily reports that Bitcoin is facing significant resistance near the $80,000 level, while the derivatives market continues to emit risk-aversion signals. Analysts point out that the cost basis for short-term holders is concentrated around $80,000. A price break above this level could trigger profit-taking selling pressure, thereby limiting further upside potential.

Meanwhile, the upcoming release of the US March PCE inflation data, coupled with rising international oil prices and climbing US Treasury yields, continues to weigh on risk assets. WTI crude oil briefly surged to $110, and restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz has left the energy market fragile. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, but the meeting saw four dissenting officials, the most since 1992, further exacerbating market uncertainty.

Bitwise researcher Luke Deans stated that the 180-day correlation and Beta quantiles for altcoins versus Bitcoin are near 97% and 99% respectively, implying that most tokens will behave as "highly leveraged versions of Bitcoin."

Derivatives data shows that the total futures open interest (OI) across the market dropped by over 2% to $119 billion within 24 hours, while trading volume increased by 26% to $208 billion. This indicates a large number of positions being closed and capital exiting the market, signaling heightened risk aversion. During the same period, exchanges have liquidated over $500 million in leveraged positions, the majority of which were longs, reflecting a concentrated hit on bulls amid market weakness.

Additionally, BTC and ETH futures OI fell by 2% and 1.7% respectively, and the cumulative volume delta (CVD) for most major tokens in the last 24 hours turned negative. This suggests stronger selling aggression from the seller side and an elevated risk of further decline. Deribit data shows that protective put options for BTC and ETH are consistently priced higher than calls. Meanwhile, the large open interest in Bitcoin call options at the $80,000 strike forms a positive gamma structure, meaning market makers may continue to sell hedges around this price level, further capping upside potential. (CoinDesk)