Iran Questions U.S. Sincerity, Refusal to Negotiate Hides Multiple Considerations

Odaily News According to a message released by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly of Iran, in the early hours of the 21st local time, U.S. President Trump, through imposing blockades and violating the ceasefire agreement, is attempting to turn the negotiation table into a surrender table for Iran, or to find an excuse to reignite war. Currently, the U.S. side frequently releases news about sending a delegation to participate in negotiations, while Iran has expressed refusal to negotiate. Analysis points out that behind Iran's related statements lie multiple considerations and concerns:

First, Iran questions the lack of sincerity from the U.S. in negotiations. Iran once announced a conditional temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz, but this move did not lead to the U.S. lifting the blockade on Iranian ports.

Second, it is a negotiation tactic. "Refusing to negotiate" itself is often an important bargaining chip outside the negotiation table. If Iran shows an "eagerness to negotiate," the U.S. is likely to exert further pressure. In the absence of basic trust, both sides will engage in a series of maneuvers before negotiations to probe each other's bottom lines.

Third, there are hardline voices and anti-American sentiment within Iran. Hardliners believe that expressing a willingness to return to the negotiation table too early under continued U.S. pressure is a sign of compromise and concession.

Currently, the U.S. and Iran have disagreements on multiple issues including the nuclear issue, passage through the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions against Iran. There is a severe lack of mutual trust, and the goals each side hopes to achieve through negotiations also differ significantly. Analysis points out that the current situation may develop in the following directions:

First, both sides return to the negotiation table within the ceasefire period, or reach a consensus to extend the ceasefire and continue negotiations. However, the possibility of reaching a comprehensive, long-term agreement in the short term is low, and negotiations could break down again at any time due to hardline statements or actions from either side.

Second, both sides fall into a "limited-scale conflict." After the ceasefire expires, military standoffs and harassment between the U.S. and Iran around the Strait of Hormuz will continue, and hostilities may reignite.

Third, the conflict escalates on a large scale, leading to an uncontrollable situation. The U.S. has recently continued to issue military threats against Iran, but analysis from the U.S. side suggests that, constrained by factors such as rising war costs and increasing electoral political pressure, the Trump administration's decision-making space for a large-scale escalation of hostilities is relatively limited. (CCTV)