Wintermute Weekly Report: Middle East Geopolitics Dominates Markets, Crypto Sentiment Remains Weak

According to the latest weekly report from Wintermute, global markets are entirely driven by Middle East geopolitics. Following Iran's signal for a ceasefire, US stocks and crude oil retreated. However, Trump's tough stance caused WTI crude oil to surge by 11% to above $111. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.36%, and market pricing indicates a zero probability of a Fed rate cut in April. This week's PCE data is under high scrutiny. Sentiment in the crypto market remains weak, with Bitcoin posting a weekly gain of only 2%. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 9 (Extreme Fear). In March, ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.32 billion overall, but turned to net outflows by the end of the month, indicating a shift from buying to selling by institutions. Ethereum performed relatively stronger with a 4.2% gain. Solana fell below $80 due to a $285 million theft from the Drift protocol. Wintermute points out that Tuesday is a key node for the conflict, with a 45-day ceasefire framework under negotiation. An escalation in the situation would once again push up the risk premium for oil prices.