Dragonfly Partner: Token Launch Timing Has No Significant Impact on Long-Term Performance, "Just Launch"

Odaily News Dragonfly Managing Partner Haseeb posted on X, stating that by using the Claude Code tool to analyze all token launch data from Binance announcements, the research results show that there is no statistically significant difference in the performance of tokens launched during bull and bear markets (Mann-Whitney p = 0.81). This means the performance difference between tokens launched in bull and bear markets is indistinguishable from noise, and the timing of a token launch is not important.

He pointed out that due to a sample bias where people tend to launch tokens in bull markets and there is more capital available in bull markets, one cannot simply observe the proportion of tokens launched in bull markets among the top 100 tokens. This study compared the relative performance of approximately 200 token projects (excluding non-independently priced tokens like RWA, stablecoins, LST) from Binance listing announcements across bull, bear, and neutral markets, proving the robustness of this conclusion. Furthermore, he added that while launching in a bear market has advantages such as less competition for talent, cheaper service providers, and less pressure for exchange listings, bull markets are more favorable for token sales. However, overall, these factors offset each other. Solana's launch just 4 days after the "COVID crash" in March 2020 is a classic case. Developers should focus on product delivery rather than timing. His original quote was: "It doesn't matter that much when you launch. Just launch."