Analysis: Bitcoin Shows Negative Correlation with Japanese Bond Yields, Potential BOJ Intervention Could Trigger Rebound

Odaily News Delphi Digital published an article stating, "Bitcoin prices have stagnated while gold continues to rise. The reason may lie with Japanese government bonds. Typically, rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, thereby putting pressure on gold. However, when both gold and yields rise simultaneously, the market is essentially pricing in policy pressure and balance sheet fragility rather than economic growth.

The yield on Japan's 10-year government bond is currently about 3.65 standard deviations above its long-term average. The Bank of Japan structurally holds long-term bonds and is deeply exposed to Japanese government bonds in terms of both assets and collateral.

Gold is absorbing this pressure, while Bitcoin shows a negative correlation with Japan's 10-year government bond yield. Over a longer period, Bitcoin has consistently struggled relatively as Japanese yields have risen. If the Bank of Japan intervenes to stabilize the government bond market, the risk premium priced into gold may ease, and Bitcoin could also gain room for a rebound."