Matrixport Research: Tariffs Stir the Market, Bitcoin Becomes the "First-Responder Asset" to Macro Volatility
- Core View: The current Bitcoin price correction is primarily a tactical trading adjustment triggered by external macro disturbances (such as Trump's tariff strategy), not a fundamental trend reversal. Bitcoin is increasingly becoming a high-beta proxy asset sensitive to changes in global liquidity.
- Key Factors:
- Market volatility stems from Trump's "extreme pressure-tactical cooling" tariff strategy, aimed at creating market fluctuations to strengthen negotiation leverage, not structural deterioration.
- Bitcoin has become a leading indicator asset for macro shocks, often being the first to absorb liquidity shocks when traditional markets are closed, with selling pressure intensifying after traditional markets open.
- The price retracement (approximately 3%-7%) is mainly driven by institutional desk deleveraging and risk rebalancing, not retail sentiment, and implied volatility has not significantly increased.
- Bitcoin's market narrative has shifted from "inflation hedge" to a "high-beta indicator" highly sensitive to global liquidity, with its correlation strengthening.
- Volatility created by such macro disturbances, in turn, constitutes repeatable trading windows, potentially corresponding to favorable entry zones before events ease and risk appetite recovers.
This round of market volatility does not stem from a structural deterioration in the fundamentals of crypto assets, but rather resembles a phase of repricing under external macro disturbances. The latest round of tariff threats from Trump should be viewed less as traditional trade policy and more as a strategic tool to create market volatility and strengthen negotiation leverage. The market has gradually adapted to this rhythm: news shocks first trigger price repricing, and selling pressure is amplified when liquidity tightens; once negotiation signals are released, prices often stabilize relatively quickly, and trading returns to a relatively orderly state.
In this process, Bitcoin's correlation with global liquidity continues to strengthen, gradually assuming the role of a high-beta proxy for global liquidity, rather than a traditional macro hedge tool. The current price pullback leans more towards a trading-level adjustment rather than a trend reversal.
Tariff Strategy Reshapes Volatility Rhythm: Bitcoin Becomes a Leading Reaction Asset to Macro Shocks
Trump's trade strategy in his second term has evolved into a clear "two-step escalation" mechanism: first announcing initial tariff arrangements, then setting higher tariff brackets for subsequent stages. This design creates immediate liquidity shocks while also providing the market with clear temporal anchor points. Related statements often bypass traditional diplomatic channels and are concentrated on weekends, allowing Bitcoin to absorb macro shocks first during traditional market closures, becoming a liquidity-abundant vehicle for risk pricing.
Judging from market reactions, Bitcoin's volatility during weekends is often relatively contained, while selling pressure deepens significantly after US stock futures resume trading. This indicates that the current price adjustment is not primarily driven by retail sentiment, but rather stems from traditional financial participants rebalancing cross-asset risk exposures after liquidity returns. As long as the market continues to react to this rhythm of "maximum pressure—tactical de-escalation," Bitcoin will remain in the first-response position for macro disturbances.
Volatility Does Not Equal a Turn: Repeatable Trading Windows in Tactical Pullbacks
Since 2025, Bitcoin's market narrative has shown a clear shift—from an "inflation hedge asset" to a high-beta indicator highly sensitive to changes in global liquidity. Tariff-related statements often trigger phase pullbacks of about 3%–7%. This is not due to deteriorating fundamentals but is the result of institutional trading desks actively deleveraging and reducing risk exposure against the backdrop of a strengthening US dollar and rising stagflation expectations.
Within this framework, tariffs are the means, and volatility is the goal. This type of volatility, in turn, constitutes repeatable trading windows: the shock phase intensifies negotiation pressure, while the period before events ease and risk appetite recovers often corresponds to relatively favorable entry zones. Meanwhile, the fact that implied volatility has not risen significantly also suggests the market does not view this as a structural escalation of risk.
Overall, this round of Bitcoin pullback is more tactical than a trend reversal. As the market gradually sees through this negotiation rhythm and prices in its impact, Bitcoin's weight as the primary pricing vehicle for related statements may marginally decline. Against the backdrop of overall resilience in risk assets, the necessity for sustained concern is limited. For investors, rather than overinterpreting short-term headlines, it is more valuable to focus on changes in pricing and liquidity structure—within a disciplined framework, the value of buying on dips still outweighs concerns about a "structural turn."
The views above are excerpted from Matrix on Target. Contact us to obtain the full Matrix on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading can involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided in this content.
