Delphi Digital: Multiple policies working in tandem have led to the market's first positive net liquidity turnaround since early 2022.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, crypto market research firm Delphi Digital points out that the Federal Reserve's interest rate path next year is the clearest it has been in recent years: a further 25 basis point rate cut is expected in December 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to the 3.5%-3.75% range; the forward curve shows that there may be at least three more rate cuts in 2026, with the rate expected to fall back to around 3% by the end of the year.

The study states that, more importantly, liquidity has seen three structural improvements simultaneously: quantitative tightening (QT) officially ended on December 1, the Treasury General Account (TGA) program has been gradually reduced, and overnight reverse repos (RRPs) have been exhausted, bringing the market back to a net liquidity positive environment for the first time since the beginning of 2022.

Delphi Digital states that the SOFR and federal funds rate have fallen back to the high range of 3%, and real interest rates have also declined from their 2023-2024 highs, indicating a "controlled slowdown" rather than a sharp shift in easing. They predict that 2026 will be a year where policy shifts from headwinds to moderate tailwinds, which will benefit long-duration assets, large-cap stocks, gold, and digital assets with structural demand.