Opinion: Gold prices will approach $5,000 in 2026 and break another historic mark in 2027.

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Deutsche Bank predicts that gold prices may approach $5,000 per ounce in 2026 and break through this key psychological level in 2027.

Michael Hsueh, an analyst at the bank, pointed out that after the market completes its position clearing, central bank demand for gold will continue, and with the re-entry of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), gold prices are expected to climb to a high of $4,950 per ounce in 2026.

In a report released Wednesday, Michael raised his average gold price forecast for next year from $4,000 to $4,450 per ounce. For 2027, he gave a target of $5,150 per ounce.

Although gold prices fell by about 10% from their October peak, they have since recovered half of that loss. This analyst observed that "gold is breaking historical patterns"—price volatility in 2025 is expected to be the highest since 1980. At that time, persistent market concerns about inflation, fiat currency devaluation, and a global debt spiral had driven gold prices to record highs.

He emphasized that the remarkable performance of gold prices in this round was not solely due to the depreciation of the US dollar, which makes it all the more remarkable.

Michael expects global central bank "official" and "rigid" demand to continue driving up gold prices in 2026. Central bank gold purchases reached 220 tons in the third quarter, the third highest on record, significantly exceeding second-quarter figures despite already high gold prices. He cited a central bank official who stated that gold is "the ultimate safeguard against the tail-end risk of black swan events."

After four consecutive years of outflows, gold ETFs are expected to return to net inflows in 2025. Michael believes the recent profit-taking wave may have subsided, based on the slight daily fluctuations in net buying and selling. He thinks the $3,900 per ounce support level will hold.

Michael observed a certain causal pattern in the flow of funds in gold ETFs (price direction determines fund inflows and outflows), and pointed out that the beginning of the year is usually the period when gold's seasonal performance is most active. Backtesting data from the past 20 and 30 years shows that gold generally shows positive month-on-month growth in January and February.

Finally, based on data from the first nine months, Michael estimates that total gold production in 2025 will reach 3,693 tons, a supply response that appears extremely limited in the face of high prices. His model projects a supply of 3,715 tons for next year, implying that demand is likely to continue to outpace supply. (Jinshi)