Arthur Hayes stated that the Bitcoin decline stemmed from a contraction in dollar liquidity, and a short-term pullback to $80,000 to $85,000 is possible.

According to a recent article by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, Odaily Planet Daily, the core reason for the recent Bitcoin decline is not a deterioration in fundamentals, but rather a significant contraction in dollar liquidity. He pointed out that weakening ETF and DAT-related fund flows have re-exposed the market to a negative liquidity environment, with the dollar liquidity index decreasing by approximately $1 trillion since July. The exit of ETF arbitrageurs and the disappearance of the DAT premium have eliminated "pseudo-buying" in Bitcoin, requiring a downward price adjustment to re-align with actual liquidity.

Hayes believes that BTC may further retrace to the $80,000 to $85,000 range in the short term, possibly accompanied by credit events and rising US Treasury yields. He predicts that once US stocks experience a correction of about 10%–20% and push US Treasury yields to continue rising, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury will be forced to release liquidity again. If a policy shift occurs, Bitcoin may rebound rapidly to the $200,000 to $250,000 range by the end of the year.