According to a recent lengthy article by Arthur Hayes, published by Odaily Planet Daily, the US Treasury and Federal Reserve are preparing for a "stealth QE," which could become a key catalyst for a new round of price increases in Bitcoin and the crypto market.

Currently, US government spending continues to expand, and political incentives dictate that they are more inclined to issue bonds than raise taxes. Foreign central banks, due to the risk of confiscation of dollar assets following the Russia-Ukraine war, are more inclined to buy gold than US Treasury bonds. The US private savings rate is insufficient to support Treasury bond issuance, while the four major commercial banks have only absorbed a small portion of new debt. "Relative value (RV) hedge funds" have become marginal buyers of US Treasury bonds, primarily through leveraged financing via repurchase agreements (repo agreements).

The U.S. Treasury expects to issue approximately $2 trillion in new debt annually to cover the deficit. When market liquidity is tight and the SOFR (overnight funding rate) exceeds the federal funds ceiling, the Federal Reserve injects cash directly into the market through the Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF). This is equivalent to "de facto QE": printing money → lending → supporting the Treasury market.

As SRF usage increases, global dollar liquidity rises, effectively equivalent to QE. Hayes predicts this will reignite the bull market cycle for Bitcoin and the crypto market. "BTC rises whenever the Fed expands its balance sheet."

The current US government shutdown and Treasury bond auctions have tightened liquidity in the short term, putting pressure on the crypto market. Hayes advises investors to "preserve capital and wait for the right opportunity," stating that the market will see a strong rebound after the "hidden QE begins."