According to Odaily Planet Daily, analysts at Cryptoquant stated that the market is facing shocks similar to those in 2021, but the current structure is different. In previous cycles, panic phases saw increased reserves on exchanges, and the influx of liquidity on exchanges amplified selling pressure. Currently, Bitcoin balances on exchanges are at a ten-year low, indicating limited supply available for sale and a tighter market structure. With fewer Bitcoins held on exchanges, a sustained downward trend is unlikely.

The behavior of long-term holders is also different from past trends. In 2020 and 2021, the long-term holder SOPR (LTH-SOPR) remained well below 1 for several months, indicating that investors were fleeing for fear of losses. However, during this decline, the ratio remained near neutral, indicating cautious profit-taking rather than fear-driven selling. Long-term investors continued to hold on during this volatility, enhancing market resilience. Looking back at past shocks, the March 2020 crash eliminated leverage, allowing large investors to accumulate significantly, leading to a V-shaped rebound. In May 2021, Bitcoin fell 30% due to Tesla and regulatory pressure. Large investors sold approximately 50,000 Bitcoins and later repurchased 34,000 Bitcoins at the bottom. In August 2023, a US debt downgrade triggered a 15% correction, resulting in a brief decline in the SOPR before a rapid rebound. Each event eliminated excessive leverage and ushered in a new round of accumulation. This decline in the market appears more mature. With trading platform reserves decreasing and long-term holders stabilizing, temporary fluctuations do not equate to structural weaknesses, and Bitcoin is laying the foundation for the next up cycle.