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Government shutdown puts pressure on the US dollar, and risk indicators show downside risks
2025-10-01 09:31

Odaily Planet Daily reports that as the United States enters its first government shutdown in nearly seven years, the US dollar is experiencing its longest decline in a month. Historical data shows that government shutdowns typically put pressure on the dollar, and this trend is also reflected in the options market. Risk reversals (which measure the gap between demand for bullish and bearish trades) suggest that the dollar faces further downside risks in the coming month. Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies, said that while the decline in stocks and the rise in US Treasuries are likely to be moderate, "the foreign exchange market is one we wouldn't expect to reverse the current trend," and he expects the dollar's weakness to persist. The duration of the government shutdown is crucial; the longer it lasts, the greater the pressure on the dollar. So far this year, the dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2022, driven by investor concerns over policy uncertainty under Trump, the growing deficit, and pressure on the Federal Reserve's independence. (Jinshi)