According to the latest data from Polymarket, as of today, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in contracts related to whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September 2025 has risen to 87%, a record high. In contrast, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 9%, the probability of no change is 4%, and the probability of a rate hike is almost zero.

Total trading volume for this prediction event has exceeded $76 million, with the "50 bps rate cut" contract generating the highest volume, exceeding $16.94 million, followed by the "25 bps rate cut" contract, which reached $12.04 million. Since early August, market confidence in a 25 bps rate cut has significantly increased, potentially reflecting growing expectations of an economic slowdown and a shift toward easing policy from the Federal Reserve.