According to Odaily Planet Daily, Moody's Chief Economist Zandi continues to warn that downside risks to the US economy are intensifying. Nearly one-third of states representing US GDP are already in recession or are very likely to do so, another one-third are experiencing economic stagnation, and the remaining one-third are still expanding. According to Moody's machine learning model, the probability of a US recession within the next 12 months is 49%. While tax cuts and defense spending could boost the economy next year, Zandi said the current baseline expectation is to "barely avoid a recession." He pointed out that the economy will be most vulnerable from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, when the inflationary impact of high tariffs and tightened immigration policies will peak, severely compressing household real income and consumer spending. Zandi also stated that given the generally low revisions to recent employment data, he does not rule out the possibility that subsequent data will show that the economy has already begun to contract. (Jinshi)