According to Odaily Planet Daily, a majority of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Federal Reserve to cut its first interest rate this year in September, possibly followed by another cut before the end of the year. This is the baseline forecast. Market concerns are growing about the health of the US economy. Of the 110 respondents, 67 (61%) expect the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, to a range of 4.0%-4.25%, the first cut of the year. This is up from 53% in the July survey, with one economist predicting a 50 basis point hike. The remaining 42 said the Fed will hold rates steady again. Over 60% of respondents (68 of 110) expect one or two rate cuts this year, essentially unchanged from last month. However, there was no consensus on the level of the federal funds rate at the end of 2025. Furthermore, 68% of respondents expect the Fed's independence to remain stable during the remainder of Powell's term. (Jinshi)
