Odaily Planet Daily reports that Bitfinex has released its Alpha Report, which notes that macroeconomic factors determine Bitcoin prices. The recent rebound, coupled with steady increases in holdings by cryptocurrency fund managers (currently holding nearly $90 billion in digital assets), has restored short-term confidence, pushing prices above the range high near $119,500. However, the sustainability of this breakout above resistance remains to be seen. Currently, prices are fluctuating around the short-term holding cost basis of $106,709, indicating a "modest but not overheated" market, consistent with a mid-term bull market.

After months of calm in financial markets, shifts in trade policy, evolving bond market dynamics, and weak economic data are setting the stage for more volatility at the end of the year. Impending US tariffs could raise costs, disrupt supply chains, and weigh on employment, while rising term premiums in the bond market (currently at 0.65%) signal heightened uncertainty about future Federal Reserve policy, particularly if inflation accelerates following the tariffs.