UBS: Trump's delay in tariff hikes is expected to delay consumer pressure until 2026

Odaily News Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS, said that Trump's postponement of the tariff increase to August 1 may mean that the impact of these new tariffs on prices will not be fully apparent before Christmas, but will be postponed to 2026. He pointed out: "Given that retailers usually prepare for Christmas in advance, and the goods need to go through the entire supply chain process from production to shelf, even if the tariffs are implemented now, the time when consumers really feel the price increase may be later. This will undoubtedly reduce some of the impact on American consumers in the second half of the year." Avoiding the cost pressure brought by tariffs during the year-end shopping season will help the White House avoid negative news. But Donovan also warned that any delay will not completely prevent these tariffs from eventually being transmitted to American households. He said: "This is actually a huge tax burden imposed on American consumers. By the end of this year, real wages adjusted for inflation will begin to fall rather than rise, and then we will see the problem really begin to emerge." (Jinshi)