Greeks.live: Expectations for a Fed rate cut next week are gradually converging, and the market theme in September is still volatility

Odaily News Adam, a researcher at Greeks.live, posted on the X platform that as this week is coming to a smooth end, the US presidential debate and various macro data have not brought significant fluctuations, and the expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut next week are gradually converging. According to the interest rate trading data provided by CME, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week is 87%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is only 13%. At the same time, it can be seen from the options data that the IV of each major term has declined significantly, the market's volatility expectations have failed, and the market theme in September is still oscillation.