Analysis: Upcoming US CPI data release will not lead to a surge in Bitcoin volatility
2024-05-14 11:00
Odaily News Tomorrow's US inflation report will be in focus as investors look for signals on the Fed's interest rate path. A series of recent unexpected events have weakened expectations of rate cuts. However, the pricing of Bitcoin options suggests that traders do not expect its volatility to rise significantly after the report is released. "The market is pricing in an almost negligible premium for this event," said institutional liquidity provider OrBit Markets, noting that Bitcoin prices may fluctuate less than 2% after the CPI report, with almost no additional volatility, while S&P 500 index options pricing reflects relatively high volatility. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, has considered Bitcoin options expiring later this week. His analysis is consistent with OrBit's: "The implied volatility of the options expiring on May 17 is 52.8%, only 2% higher than other options, which means that traders expect a modest increase in volatility after the CPI release. However, realized (historical) volatility is still below 50%, which means that expectations of large increases or decreases are not reflected in the price." (CoinDesk)
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