BTC
ETH
HTX
SOL
BNB
查看行情
简中
繁中
English
日本語
한국어
ภาษาไทย
Tiếng Việt

AI Computing Power Assetization Wave: Axe Compute Could Be the Most Undervalued GPU Compute Entry in U.S. Stocks

Trend Research
特邀专栏作者
2026-07-27 08:46
本文約8951字,閱讀全文需要約13分鐘
From the end of 2025 to the first half of 2026, as other sectors (such as some high-valuation growth, cyclical, and purely narrative themes) fade, while AI Capex continues to exceed expectations and semiconductor and data center-related stocks significantly outperform, a market consensus has truly formed — "AI is no longer just one of the themes, but has become the absolute main line of the global capital market."
AI總結
展開
  • Core Thesis: Axe Compute (AGPU), through its transformation from a biotech company to an AI computing power service provider, leverages a hybrid business model of "Instant Access" and "Cluster Construction," along with a "Compute + Treasury" dual-drive strategy. Having signed contracts worth over $1.6 billion, its market value is severely underestimated, with a potential 6-11x upside in its stock price.
  • Key Elements:
    1. Starting from December 2025, Axe Compute strategically transformed from a biotech company (POAI) into an AI computing power company (AGPU). By April 2026, it completed the commercial integration of the Aethir distributed GPU network, covering over 400,000 GPUs across 93 countries.
    2. The company's operations are divided into the asset-light "Instant Access Program" (Access) and the asset-heavy "Cluster Construction Program" (Build). In July 2026, the Build business line added a new $1.3 billion, five-year AI infrastructure contract, bringing total orders in hand to over $1.6 billion.
    3. Based on confirmed signed contracts, conservative estimates for confirmed revenue in the 2026 fiscal year are $125 million. Compared to industry leader CoreWeave's forward price-to-sales ratio of approximately 3.88x, AGPU's forward reasonable market capitalization is estimated at around $485 million, corresponding to a target price of $42.6 per share. This implies an upside of approximately 6.2x from the current price of $6.85.
    4. The company holds a significant amount of ATH tokens as a strategic reserve. By running the Access business on the Aethir network, it creates a positive "Compute + Treasury" flywheel effect, where "orders drive ATH demand, and ATH appreciation in turn boosts the business," forming a unique AI x Crypto capital model.
    5. Key risks include: potential delays in execution and delivery of large orders, risk of revenue conversion and financial verification falling short of expectations, and valuation adjustments due to macroeconomic or market corrections. Currently, the narrative precedes financial realization.

From the end of 2025 to the first half of 2026, as other tracks (some high-valuation growth, cyclical, and pure narrative themes) fade, and AI Capex continues to exceed expectations, with semiconductor and data center-related stocks significantly outperforming, market consensus truly forms — "AI is no longer just one of the themes, but has become the absolute main line of the global capital market." Through research into undervalued AI companies in the US stock market, Axe Compute has become a key focus for us this year. A recent announcement on July 22 added a $1.3 billion AI computing power contract, greatly strengthening our confidence in Axe's investment. If the contracts can be implemented in an orderly manner and the data is truly reflected in the financial reports, we believe that "Axe Compute, a company currently with a market cap of less than $100 million, could become the most undervalued GPU Compute gateway in the US stock market."

1. A Stunning Transformation from Pharmaceuticals to AI Computing

Before its name change in December 2025, Axe Compute was Predictive Oncology Inc. (NASDAQ: POAI), a typical US micro-cap biopharmaceutical company. As a typical "small-cap biotech stock," POAI had mediocre performance in the pharmaceutical stage: revenue remained at the level of hundreds of thousands of dollars for a long time, with continuous losses and a market cap hovering in the tens of millions, attracting very little attention from the capital market.

In September 2025, the company suddenly initiated a "Strategic Compute Reserve," clearly using Aethir's native utility token (ATH) as the core, continuing the narrative of a Crypto Treasury strategy, hinting that the company would shift towards an AI narrative and computing business.

In October 2025, it completed two simultaneous PIPE financings, totaling $343.5 million in cash, through a mixed financing of $50.8 million in cash and $292.7 million in nominal value of ATH. Through this financing, the company's balance sheet turned from negative equity to a positive $47.7 million gain, acquiring 6.348 billion ATH, formally forming a deep binding between the company and the Aethir network. This enabled a capital operation model combining AI computing narrative and treasury company, bringing the company into the observation scope.

From December 11-12, 2025, the company underwent a brand transformation. The company name changed from Predictive Oncology Inc. → Axe Compute Inc., and the ticker changed from POAI → AGPU, continuing to trade on Nasdaq.

At the end of the first quarter of 2026, Axe Compute officially began operations as a new cloud service provider, with the crypto project Aethir's affiliates potentially becoming the largest shareholder, signaling a full transformation to the financial market:

On February 9, Charles L. Nuzum became Chairman, and Christopher Miglino (who previously participated in the ATH transaction structure design) officially became CEO. In March, the board was restructured, with Kyle Okamoto (former Aethir CTO/GM) becoming President.

On April 1, the company completed its enterprise-level commercial integration of the Aethir distributed GPU network (400,000+ GPU containers, 200+ locations, 93 countries), signing its first batch of enterprise contracts worth approximately $12 million. The contracts mainly consist of the Immediate Access Program, expected to contribute approximately $835,000 in monthly revenue, with payment methods including prepayment and monthly advance payment. It has already begun to contribute a small amount of compute revenue (approximately $7,000 actually recognized in Q1).

On April 22, 2026, it disclosed a $260 million B300 exclusive cluster contract (first order of the Build Program). Key contract terms: 36-month take-or-pay agreement, delivering 2,304 NVIDIA B300 GPUs + AI high-speed storage (US Tier-3 data center, 4.8 MW dedicated power). Structured deposit + prepayment + monthly advances. After going live in Q3 2026, quarterly revenue is expected to be approximately $21 million.

On May 27, 2026: Confirmed receipt of a $43 million down payment for the B300 contract. This is the first real contractual cash milestone, confirming that the Build model has started according to plan, with hardware procurement and deployment in progress.

On June 16, 2026: Finalized a $25.9 million Blackwell / Grace Blackwell long-term deployment contract (12 months + 24 months, renewable), with $12.9 million prepaid.

On July 22, 2026: Announced new AI infrastructure customer contracts totaling $1.3 billion. These agreements are based on five-year contracts with optional renewals, requiring significant upfront prepayments, and include clauses for continuous GPU upgrades as next-generation GPUs become available. Revenue is expected to begin generating by the end of the fourth quarter of 2026, with prepayments occurring in the third quarter of 2026. At that point, Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) will exceed $384 million. This large $1.3 billion order should be the starting point for the entire market to truly re-evaluate Axe.

2. Multiple AI Computing Solutions, Highly Elastic "Coreweave": Analysis of Axe's Business Model

Axe Compute Inc. is a technology company focused on providing high-performance computing infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI) workloads. It acquires large-scale GPU capacity from hardware manufacturers and infrastructure providers, then deploys it to enterprise customers through long-term service agreements. Services include hardware procurement, colocation, networking, storage, and financing. Axe also retains its oncology drug discovery solutions business, but it is currently not the company's main focus.

1. Axe's Business is Divided into Two Product Lines

(1) Immediate Access Program

Targets customers who need rapid deployment and elastic scaling. Leveraging the existing GPU inventory of the Aethir distributed network, deployment can be completed in as fast as 48 hours, covering over 200 global nodes. Suitable for scenarios like inference, fine-tuning, and small to medium-scale training, billed monthly based on reserved capacity.

(2) Build Program / AI Factory

Targets large-scale, long-term dedicated computing needs. Axe is responsible for overall architecture design, data center site selection and power negotiation, hardware financing arrangements, and final enterprise-level SLA (Service Level Agreement) operations — "Design-Deploy-Own-Operate."

The $260 million, three-year contract signed in April 2026 is a landmark case for this model. The company plans to procure a dedicated cluster composed of 2,304 NVIDIA B300 GPUs and AI-specific high-speed storage infrastructure from a US Tier-3 data center facility, supported by 4.8 MW of dedicated redundant power. The customer specifies the deployment location and service standards. Deployment is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2026. Using a structured payment arrangement, the initial $43 million has been received. Over the 36-month service period, the company will recognize approximately $21 million in revenue per quarter.

In June 2026, the company signed another $25.9 million Blackwell and Grace Blackwell long-term deployment contract, covering both inference infrastructure and simulation platform scenarios. $12.9 million has been received as a prepayment.

In July 2026, the company's Build business line secured long-term AI infrastructure contracts totaling over $1.3 billion for five years in the US and Europe, significantly exceeding the full-year target of $1 billion in signed contracts. Project prepayments will be received in Q3 2026, with sustained revenue recognition formally starting at the end of Q4 2026. After all clusters are fully operational, the corresponding Annual Recurring Revenue will exceed $384 million. The company's management stated that current market demand is strong, and this related revenue will be included in the 2027 ARR, continuously opening up medium to long-term growth potential.

2. Re-understanding Axe's Build Computing Business

The best comparison is CoreWeave: one is a leader in centralized training, the other is a new force in global hybrid computing.

CoreWeave pursues an asset-heavy, centralized path focused on training scenarios. It operates 49 large-scale AI data centers in North America and Europe, possessing approximately 250,000 high-end GPUs. Leveraging InfiniBand high-speed interconnect networks and Kubernetes-native orchestration, it builds single-site exascale training clusters. Its extreme performance for large-scale distributed training suits head AI labs like OpenAI, Meta, and Microsoft for trillion-parameter training. Listed on Nasdaq in March 2025, it received an additional $2 billion strategic investment from NVIDIA in January 2026, becoming a benchmark enterprise for dedicated AI computing clouds (Neo-Cloud). However, with all data centers concentrated in North America and Europe, the 80-150ms network latency from cross-continental transmission, coupled with various countries' data residency compliance requirements, keeps CoreWeave out of large regional markets like Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America.

Axe Compute, on the other hand, pursues a hybrid model, is distributed, and has global coverage. On one hand, it leverages the Aethir distributed computing network to integrate global third-party data center resources, deploying over 200 computing nodes across 93 countries, providing access to a total of over 435,000 GPUs. On the other hand, it is aggressively expanding its asset-centric new cloud business worth over $1 billion. This allows it to enter the large-scale customized computing market, serving all types of GPU buyers and AI companies.

3. Financial Analysis

Axe Compute's Financial Results for the First Quarter Ended March 31, 2026

Press enter or click to view image in full size

As of March 31, 2026, the company held $6.9 million in cash and cash equivalents, $20.2 million in ATH digital asset holdings (approximately 2.83 billion tokens), and $9.4 million in current digital asset receivables, totaling a liquidity pool of approximately $36.5 million. Management believes this is sufficient to support the company's operations through fiscal year 2026 and beyond.

Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was $35,000, compared to $110,000 in the first quarter of 2025. Sales in Q1 2026 were primarily from the legacy drug discovery services segment, with the compute services segment contributing only $7,000. According to company disclosures, the $43 million down payment for the B300 order was received in May, and a new $25.9 million Blackwell series long-term contract was added in June, neither of which has yet been converted into income statement revenue.

Once the $260 million exclusive cluster goes live in the third quarter, the company can recognize approximately $21 million in computing revenue for that single quarter, which is 600 times the total revenue of the first quarter. Assuming the $1.3 billion orders go live in the fourth quarter, quarterly revenue could further increase by $65 million to $86 million, representing a quarter-over-quarter increase of over 400%. The company is at the cusp of an explosive leap from tens of thousands in quarterly revenue to hundreds of millions in quarterly revenue. The current market pricing has not yet fully reflected the certainty of this stepped revenue jump.

Net loss for the first quarter of 2026 was $7.7 million. The net loss included a $4.3 million non-cash mark-to-market loss on the company's ATH digital asset holdings. As of March 31, 2026, accounts receivable were $659,000, compared to $32,000 on December 31, 2025. Both accounts receivable and contract liabilities increased significantly during the quarter, reflecting monthly prepayments due from Compute Services customers after projects went live at the end of the first quarter.

Christopher Miglino, CEO of Axe Compute, stated: "Our goal for this year was to sign contracts worth $1 billion. The finalization of the July contracts has us far exceeding that goal... We believe signing another $2 billion in contracts this year is not out of reach, which will help boost next year's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)." Combined with his public statements from the first half of the year, Axe Compute currently has a potential business order pipeline of over $4 billion, has signed contracts worth over $1 billion, and targets signing a total of $3 billion in contracts this year.

4. Valuation Analysis

  • Model 1: Forward P/S for FY2026E

Estimated Annual Revenue

Below are the confirmed orders officially announced. Based on these contracts, the confirmed revenue for FY2026 is estimated to be approximately $125 million.

Three Wall Street analysts predict AGPU's average FY2026 revenue to be $163,935,524, with a low estimate of $157,505,455 and a high estimate of $168,752,872. For FY2027, the average is $254,372,663, with a low of $244,405,017 and a high of $261,853,600. Currently, our conservative estimate based on confirmed revenue is approximately $125 million.

CoreWeave's Forward PS is approximately 3.88x. Axe Compute's actual confirmed FY2026 revenue is approximately $125 million. Total shares outstanding are 11.385 million, with a current price of $6.85.

Axe Market Cap = $125M × 3.88 = $485M

Corresponding Stock Price: $485M ÷ 11.385M shares ≈ $42.60/share

Upside from Current Price: $42.60 ÷ $6.85 ≈ 6.21x

  • Model 2: P/ARR (Forward Scenario Calculation)

P/ARR (Market Cap to Annual Recurring Revenue) is a standard valuation metric for the computing infrastructure industry, suitable for business models centered on multi-year locked-in computing contracts. It better reflects the intrinsic value of a company's long-term stable cash flow. We use CoreWeave's mid-July 2026 P/ARR valuation of approximately 2.4x as a fair pricing benchmark for a mature computing service provider.

To date, the long-term steady-state annualized recurring revenue (ARR) from the company's total Build business long-term orders can reach $384 million.

Axe's Reasonable Forward Total Market Cap = $384M × 2.4 = $921.6M

Corresponding Target Stock Price = $921.6M ÷ 11.385M shares ≈ $80.94/share

Upside from Current Price: $80.94 ÷ $6.85 ≈ 11.8x

Based on comprehensive calculations, Axe's stock price has an upside potential of 6-11 times its current level, indicating that its current market value is severely undervalued. The above calculations do not apply a valuation discount for differences in business scale or development maturity between the two companies, so the actual reasonable valuation midpoint may have room for downward adjustment.

From a peer comparison perspective, there is a significant mismatch between AGPU's current market pricing and its business scale and growth potential. As of now, the company's market cap is only about $80 million. Based on finalized long-term contracts, its guided ARR has reached $384 million, corresponding to a P/ARR of only 0.2x. In comparison, peers Nebius, CoreWeave, IREN, and WhiteFiber have P/S on ARR ratios of 6.9x, 2.4x, 4.0x, and 10.4x, respectively. Even considering AGPU is still in its early commercialization stage, with revenue recognition not yet fully unleashed, its valuation level remains far below the industry average. As the B300 exclusive cluster and subsequent contracts exceeding $1 billion contribute revenue in the second half of 2026, the company's ARR is expected to materialize rapidly next year. The current extremely low valuation multiple provides investors with significant margin of safety and upside potential.

3. AI x Crypto Capital Model Design: The "Compute + Treasury" Dual-Wheel Drive Model

In addition to the remarkably promising Compute business, AGPU also possesses a highly imaginative flywheel model: the ATH Treasury strategy. Unlike treasury companies that simply hold BTC or ETH, ATH is placed within a corporate entity whose related business generates positive cash flow. Compute orders directly drive ATH demand and settlement, while Treasury appreciation feeds back into Compute expansion. The two are mutually causal and synergistically resonant, forming a self-reinforcing positive flywheel.

1. What are ATH and Aethir?

The Aethir Network is a decentralized physical infrastructure network developed by the Panama-based foundation company DCI Foundation ("DCI"). The Aethir Network aggregates enterprise-grade GPUs contributed by independent data centers, enterprises, and other hardware owners into a single global distributed network. The network is designed to provide on-demand GPU compute resources for AI training and inference, cloud gaming,

投資
技術
AI
歡迎加入Odaily官方社群