保險業迎來最大競爭對手，預測市場才是「門口的野蠻人」？

Wenser

Odaily资深作者

@wenser2010

2026-06-22 10:08

本文約3934字，閱讀全文需要約6分鐘

酒吧免單、房價避險、體育保險……預測市場支援客製化需求。

AI總結

展開

核心觀點：預測市場平台（如Kalshi、Polymarket）正透過提供成本更低、透明度更高的風險對沖工具，侵入傳統保險業領域，涵蓋體育保險、房價避險、小型企業營運風險等場景，標誌著風險轉移模式的根本性轉變。
關鍵要素：
1. Kalshi 與體育保險經紀商 Game Point Capital 合作，為 NBA 球隊提供績效獎金避險，其定價（如6%）顯著低於傳統市場（12-13%），預計處理數千萬美元資金。
2. Polymarket 與房地產平台 Parcl 合作，允許使用者針對美國主要城市房價指數漲跌進行月度/季度預測，賣方可用於對沖房價下跌風險，買方則可對沖上漲風險。
3. 紐約酒吧 The Jeffrey 在 Kalshi 上投入 5000 美元預測尼克斯比賽獲勝，以此對沖「顧客免單」行銷活動的成本，實現風險轉移與行銷雙贏。
4. Kalshi 明確將自身定位為「小型企業保險提供商」，透過面向天氣、體育、政策等風險提供對沖，替代昂貴低效的傳統保險，適用於飯店、零售等行業。
5. 預測市場的保險價值優於傳統競猜：市場範圍更廣、退出靈活；平台中立不互為對手盤；交易資訊透明；反對「禁止或破產」的用戶准入模式。
6. 面臨挑戰：流動性不足、監管邊界模糊（如 Kalshi/Polymarket 的保險功能尚待認可）、去中心化風險（如利用吹風機影響天氣預測機器的詐欺案例）。

Original｜Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

For a long time, the insurance industry has held a "ballast stone" position in the economic system with its monopoly posture, but after the emergence of prediction markets, this status quo may be about to change.

In early June, the NBA Finals concluded with the Knicks defeating the Spurs 4-1 to win the championship, bringing joy or sorrow to countless betting participants. Among the happiest people might be Andy Freedman, owner of The Jeffrey bar in New York's Upper East Side. Before the game, he launched a marketing campaign offering "free drinks for all customers if the Knicks win Game 1" and simultaneously placed a $5,000 risk hedge on the prediction market platform Kalshi. Ultimately, the Knicks won the first game, The Jeffrey bar used the prediction market payout to cover drink costs, and the bar's customers enjoyed free drinks—a "triple-win" ending.

This is just one example of prediction market platforms playing a role in risk hedging and property insurance. At a time when the World Cup attracts hundreds of billions of dollars in bets, the real-world insurance industry is also facing a "barbarian at the gate."

Prediction Market Platforms Can Also "Buy Insurance"—Believe It or Not?

Yes, you read that right. To some extent, prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are already encroaching on the business territory of insurance companies, covering not only routine marketing but also sports insurance, weather disasters, and more.

When Prediction Markets Steal Sports Insurance Clients: Kalshi Partners with Game Point Capital

In February of this year, specialized sports insurance broker Game Point Capital announced a partnership with Kalshi, where the latter will provide hedging against NBA team performance bonuses (e.g., playoff advancement bonuses) for the former.

As a professional company that issues hundreds of millions of dollars in sports insurance annually, Game Point Capital's shift is clearly not just to cater to the development of the prediction market industry but a comprehensive consideration based on business, costs, and other factors.

From a market demand perspective, sports insurance has always existed. It is understood that because championship bonuses usually need to be paid by the teams themselves, professional sports teams typically purchase insurance in advance to cover this expense. Due to the large amounts involved, teams traditionally chose support from traditional insurance companies like Lloyd's, Munich Re, Swiss Re, and other US traditional insurers.

From a cost perspective, prediction market platforms offer more competitive pricing. It is understood that the pricing provided by Kalshi is significantly lower than traditional over-the-counter markets (e.g., 6% for bonus hedging vs. the traditional 12-13%). The platform is expected to handle tens of millions of dollars in hedging funds through this partnership, marking a direct example of prediction markets entering the traditional insurance and reinsurance sectors. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour described it as "a better way to hedge risk and insure things" and emphasized that "the pricing method will be more transparent."

When Prediction Markets Become "Home Price Hedging Tools": Polymarket Teams Up with Parcl to Launch a "New Home Flipping Model"

In January of this year, on-chain real estate platform Parcl announced a partnership with Polymarket, introducing Parcl's daily home price index into Polymarket's new real estate prediction market. The first markets will focus on major US cities (New York, Los Angeles, Miami, Austin, etc.). Users can predict monthly, quarterly, or annual price movements and threshold results for specific city home price indices.

Upon the news release, Parcl's project token PRCL surged over 100% that day. For Americans unable to buy homes due to high prices, they can now participate in "home flipping" trades without actually purchasing a property. Realtor senior economist Joel Berner believes that "beyond just speculating on home prices, homeowners and potential buyers can use these markets to protect their market interests."

For sellers worried about falling home prices, they can buy "Under" positions on Polymarket. If prices indeed drop later, the corresponding gains can partially offset actual property losses, achieving an insurance effect. For buyers, or those planning to purchase a home worried about rising prices, they can predict "Over," and the related gains can help cover home purchase costs.

When NBA Games Are Linked to Free Drinks: The Cross-Industry Marketing of a New York Bar and Kalshi

In early June, Kalshi officially announced that the New York bar The Jeffrey had spent $5,000 predicting that "the Knicks would win Game 1," advertising that "if the New York Knicks win, the bar will cover all customer tabs." Notably, Kalshi's official statement used the phrase "place a $5,000 hedge on Kalshi," heavily emphasizing the insurance value of the prediction market.

In this official press release, Kalshi also revealed greater ambitions—to become an "insurance provider for small businesses," serving hotels and motels affected by sports seasonality, clothing stores and other commercial venues impacted by weather-driven foot traffic, and small businesses reliant on imported goods. They aim to offer services like sports event prediction, weather condition forecasting, and import/export policy change prediction for insurance hedging purposes.

Kalshi's Head of Business, Nicolas Hull, stated, "Small businesses face various real-world risks every day—weather, politics, sports, economic issues. Traditional insurance is expensive and inefficient, unable to effectively address such operational risks. Kalshi changes this: we provide a liquid, transparent market platform that allows any business to take corresponding actions against risks affecting their operations. This marks a fundamental shift in how small businesses handle risk."

These cases show that the insurance value of prediction markets can be widely applied across multiple fields, not just limited to sports events, brand marketing, and so on. In practical applications, traditional sports betting has already had successful precedents.

Old Wine in a New Bottle, But the New Bottle Works Better: The Insurance Value of Prediction Markets Lies in Transparency and Liquidity

In 2018, home appliance brand Vatti launched a high-profile marketing campaign with the gimmick "Full refund if the French team wins the World Cup." Although it ended in a farce of "tight deadlines, cumbersome processes, and vouchers instead of cash," it left a deep impression on many regarding "freebie marketing."

Interestingly, someone had already played this game before.

In 2017, Houston home furnishings tycoon Jim McIngvale (AKA "Mattress Mack") staged a $12 million "refund marketing" event using the "Houston Astros win the championship" gimmick.

Five years later, in 2022, "Mattress Mack" repeated the move, launching a similar campaign. Between May and July of that year, he invested $10 million across six different bookmakers in Louisiana, Iowa, and Las Vegas, again predicting the "Astros would win the championship," stating plainly that he would return "every single penny" of the winnings to the 3,000 customers who had previously participated in his furniture chain's promotional event. (Note: The promotion reportedly offered customers who purchased furniture over $3,000 a full refund or even a double refund depending on the participation time).

Ultimately, the then-71-year-old "Mattress Mack" emerged victorious again, winning $72.6 million in prizes, setting the record for the highest sports betting payout at the time.

However, compared to sports betting, the "insurance" function of prediction markets has seen significant updates.

First, the monetization of information. This brings two major benefits: (1) A broader market scope. Unlike traditional betting with limited options and narrow fields, prediction markets offer a wider "selectable range"; (2) More flexible exit mechanisms. Unlike betting events where the maximum outcome is a refund, prediction markets reflect the potential impact of information changes more directly, facilitating immediate participant decision-making.

Second, the neutral role of the platform. Unlike "platforms," "bookmakers," and "whales" in sports betting events, prediction market platforms exist as neutral entities. They only provide trading channels and do not directly act as counterparties to trading users.

Third, transaction information transparency. In sports betting, odds are typically determined by the behind-the-scenes company based on its algorithms and internal information. Many companies even use a "copy trading" model, directly adopting odds changes from other major platforms. Changes in odds and order transaction information are extremely opaque, and event judgment standards are often controversial or subject to insider buying (similar to sweeping late orders).

Fourth, participant access systems. In the US, most sports betting operators adopt a "ban or bankrupt" operating model, a business model that "restricts high-win-rate customer trading while inducing losers and average players to trade." In 2024, legendary gambler Billy Walters, "Spanky" Kyrollos, and former casino executive Richard Schuetz co-founded a non-profit advocacy organization called American Bettors Voice (ABV). Its core proposition is to oppose the "ban or bankrupt" model and call for reasonable regulation of betting limits to ensure market fairness.

Compared to traditional sports betting, the insurance value of prediction markets is undoubtedly more attractive and secure. Renowned market-making institution SIG's CEO Jeff Yass previously mentioned in a Forbes interview: "Prediction markets allow parties to share risk more efficiently based on specific parameters. For example, when a Florida homeowner faces hurricane risk, they can choose to buy 'sure-to-trigger' contracts based on the latest meteorological data. When wind speed exceeds a specified threshold, the homeowner receives insurance protection. Compared to buying annual insurance, this approach can more effectively address potential property loss risks."

Of course, currently, the insurance value of prediction markets is not yet fully developed or widely promoted, facing the following issues:

Insufficient liquidity. A wide selection range does not guarantee adequate market trading depth.
Blurry regulatory boundaries. Whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket can sustainably function as insurance providers remains subject to regulatory approval.
Decentralized democracy risks. A previous Polymarket weather prediction event, where someone used a hairdryer to influence observation machines for profit, serves as an example. Sometimes, event judgment standards may be affected by unpredictable external forces, and platform judgment rules can have various loopholes.

But regardless, the first step has been taken. Whether the insurance industry acknowledges it or not, prediction market platforms threaten not just sports betting platforms but also many traditional insurance business companies.