速覽24歲「AI股神」的最新佈局：六成倉位對沖半導體下行

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Azuma (@azuma_eth)

No confidentiality application! Nor a complete liquidation! Newly minted "AI stock guru" Leopold Aschenbrenner's fund, Situational Awareness LP, officially released its 13F filing this evening.

• Odaily Note: For details on Leopold Aschenbrenner's personal story, see SBF's Little Brother Turned $225 Million into $5.5 Billion in One Year.

This means our first hypothesis from this morning's article, Revealed as Soon as Today, the Whole Crypto World is Watching for the "AI Stock Guru's" Version Answer, was correct. Situational Awareness LP submitted the filing late on the May 15th deadline, preventing the SEC from posting it on their website that day. The market had to endure another weekend, waiting until the SEC reopened on Monday to see the fund's holdings.

According to this latest 13F filing, as of March 31, 2026, Situational Awareness LP's total notional portfolio value surged to $13.7 billion, more than doubling (a 148% increase) from $5.52 billion on December 31, 2025.

• Odaily Note: It's important to note that in the reporting standards of US 13F filings, the market value displayed for options assets typically represents the "Notional Value" of the underlying stock, not the actual premium cost paid by the fund. This means that while the fund built a semiconductor hedging wall worth hundreds of billions in notional assets, the actual cash cost incurred (maximum loss) is much smaller, representing a typical high-leverage macro hedge.

Furthermore, net fund inflows into Situational Awareness LP this quarter accounted for 32.51% of the total portfolio value. This indicates that the fund's explosive growth was not only due to portfolio appreciation but also to significant new external capital injections (i.e., new subscriptions).

Aggressive Portfolio Rebalancing

The filing also reveals that Situational Awareness LP executed a significant portfolio rebalancing in the first quarter.

• New Purchases: 23 stocks (including options);
• Added To: 9 stocks;
• Sold out of: 10 stocks (including options);
• Reduced holdings in: 4 stocks (including options).

New Purchases: 60% of Portfolio Hedging Against Semiconductor Downturn

• Odaily Note: The image above only covers new stock positions valued over $100 million. All 23 new stock purchases can be viewed via this link.

Let's first look at the new purchases, which represent the most shocking information in Situational Awareness LP's entire 13F report: In the first quarter, the fund systematically hedged risk in the AI semiconductor and computing hardware sectors through massive put option positions.

Let's look directly at the data:

• SMH PUT (VanEck Semiconductor Core ETF Put Option): 14.94% of portfolio ($2.04 billion market value) – Largest new position;
• NVDA PUT (NVIDIA Put Option): 11.47% ($1.56 billion) – Second largest new position;
• ORCL PUT (Oracle Put Option): 7.84%;
• AVGO PUT (Broadcom Put Option): 7.36%;
• AMD PUT (AMD Put Option): 7.09%;

The top five put option holdings alone account for 48.7% of Situational Awareness LP's $13.7 billion total notional portfolio value. Adding put options for Micron (MU), TSMC (TSM), ASML (ASML), and Intel (INTC), over 60% of the fund's notional positions are betting on or hedging against a decline or extreme volatility in key AI hardware stocks.

Additionally, it's noteworthy that Situational Awareness LP simultaneously purchased both call and put options on the same stocks. For example, it bought MU PUT (4.27%) and MU CALL (3.09%), as well as TSM PUT (3.91%) and TSM CALL (2.59%).

This is a common two-way betting strategy used by hedge funds. It suggests the fund believes that Micron (memory chips) and TSMC (foundry) could experience stock price swings far exceeding market expectations in upcoming 2026 earnings reports or industry cycles due to geopolitical factors or severe supply-demand imbalances. As long as the swing in one direction is significant enough, the strategy can be profitable on both sides.

Additions: Still Bullish on Sandisk & CoreWeave in Common Stock

Regarding additions, Situational Awareness LP chose common stock rather than options, increasing its holdings in 9 stocks.

In the first quarter, Situational Awareness LP slightly increased its position in Sandisk (SNDK) by 85,000 shares, bringing its total holdings to 1.14 million shares, with a market value of $724 million, accounting for 5.30% of the entire portfolio. This is one of the very few super-heavyweight positions in Situational Awareness LP's holdings held entirely in common stock form.

Another major action worthy of attention is that Situational Awareness LP significantly increased its holdings in CoreWeave (CRWV) by over 1.07 million shares in the first quarter, pushing the position value to $556 million, or 4.07% of the portfolio. CoreWeave is one of the most closely watched infrastructure companies in the AI GPU cloud services space and a key partner in the NVIDIA ecosystem. Following its IPO, Situational Awareness LP quickly integrated it into its core portfolio, adding aggressively. This indicates that while the fund is shorting NVIDIA's near-term valuation (via PUTs), it remains wildly bullish on cloud giants that directly convert GPUs into computing power rented out to major AI models.

Furthermore, Situational Awareness LP also added to positions in computing or power infrastructure companies like KEEL, IREN, APLD, RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, continuing the logic advocated by Leopold Aschenbrenner that "electricity is the new oil."

Disposals: Unwinding Intel Call Leverage, Exiting Optical Communications

Regarding disposals, Situational Awareness LP's biggest move was completely unwinding its leverage on Intel call options (INTC CALL). In the previous reporting period, Situational Awareness LP had bet over 13% of its portfolio on Intel call options (up to 20.23 million option contracts), a highly leveraged directional bet. This quarter, it completely liquidated those options, retaining a minimal position in Intel common stock (0.07%).

Additionally, Situational Awareness LP fully exited its positions in LITE (8.68% weight in previous period) and COHR (1.61% weight last quarter). LITE and COHR are global leaders in optical communication chips and optical transceivers. This divestment signals that Situational Awareness LP is withdrawing from the AI optical module/network hardware sector.

Situational Awareness LP also liquidated CIFR (2.80% previous weight) and HUT (0.72% previous weight) in the first quarter, both cryptocurrency mining companies (including CORZ, partially reduced next). Given the concurrent additions to similar companies like RIOT, CLSK, and BTDR, this likely represents routine portfolio rebalancing.

Reductions: Significant Profit-Taking in Bloom Energy

Finally, looking at the reductions, Bloom Energy (BE) was the top holding disclosed in Situational Awareness LP's previous 13F filing. In the first quarter, the fund reduced its stake by 3.59 million shares, with the position weight plummeting from 15.87% last quarter to 6.42%.

Bloom Energy specializes in solid oxide fuel cell technology and is a core player in providing "on-site independent power generation" for data centers, bypassing traditional power grids. Considering the remaining position is still substantial, this reduction doesn't necessarily mean Situational Awareness LP has turned bearish on the company. It's more likely a routine profit-taking move.

CoreWeave call options (CRWV CALL) were the second largest reduction for Situational Awareness LP (position weight plummeting from 14.04% to 1.03%). As mentioned earlier, the fund has shifted to holding CRWV in common stock form, so this is more of a deleveraging operation.

Situational Awareness LP also reduced its holdings in Core Scientific (CORZ) by 2.74 million shares, with the position decreasing from 7.59% to 2.84%. CORZ is a leading bitcoin miner transitioning to AI computing power hosting. However, given that Situational Awareness LP added other mining companies still in transition and offering better value this quarter, reducing CORZ seems more like partial profit-taking.

What is the "AI Stock Guru" Really Thinking?

Looking only at the surface data of this 13F, many might draw a simplistic conclusion: Leopold Aschenbrenner, who once loudly predicted "AGI by 2027," has begun to turn comprehensively bearish on AI.

But the reality is clearly not that simple. Within Situational Awareness LP's position structure, there are actually two seemingly contradictory, yet highly unified, core themes.

• On one hand, extreme vigilance towards short-term valuation bubbles in the "chip sector." Situational Awareness LP used a staggering scale of notional PUT positions, effectively buying "crash insurance" for the entire AI semiconductor chain including Nvidia, Broadcom, etc.;
• On the other hand, an almost obsessive optimism about long-term AI infrastructure demand. Whether it's CoreWeave, Bloom Energy, or a series of power, transformer, and data center-related companies, all point to the same deterministic logic: the AI computing power war has entered deep waters.

This likely represents Situational Awareness LP's most core current judgment. What will be truly scarce in the future may not be the GPU chips themselves, but the energy, power systems, and data center infrastructure needed to keep those GPUs running continuously. GPU production capacity can be expanded, advanced manufacturing processes will eventually ramp up, but megawatt-scale power supply capabilities, transformers, transmission systems, and large-scale data center construction cycles are difficult to replicate quickly. Compared to the already well-priced "selling shovels" logic, Leopold Aschenbrenner seems more focused on where the real bottlenecks in the next phase of the AI industry might appear.

This also explains why Situational Awareness LP would simultaneously buy massive semiconductor put options to hedge against volatility risks in the AI hardware sector, while continuing to heavily invest in GPU cloud services, power, and computing infrastructure assets.

In a sense, this 13F filing reads less like a simple disclosure of holdings and more like Leopold Aschenbrenner's roadmap for the next phase of evolution in the AI supply chain.

When a genius investor who rocketed to fame by going all-in on AI begins deploying tens of billions in notional positions to buy insurance for the AI sector, it at least proves one point: even the most staunch AI bulls of this era have started to take volatility seriously.