BTC rides the rollercoaster, HYPE hits consecutive new highs | Expert Analysis

After this week, it feels like being on a roller coaster.

This week, macroeconomic pressures were released intensively — bond market crash, rising expectations of interest rate hikes, oil prices breaking $110, and BTC falling below $78K, currently hanging in a critical range.

Structurally, I focused on analyzing two possible scenarios since the February low: has a new uptrend already started, or is this just a B-wave rebound within a larger monthly adjustment? This judgment is not yet conclusive, but the outcome of the long-short battle in the $78,500-$79,500 range is the most important observation window this week.

Operationally, I will continue to hold a cash position for the medium term. For short-term trades, I have prepared Plan A and Plan B around key support and resistance levels, keeping position sizes below 30% and strictly adhering to stop-losses.

Summary of Core Trading Views for This Week:

• BTC Multi-Timeframe Structure Analysis (Comparison of Two Subsequent Scenario Projections) (Detailed explanation in Part 1)

• BTC This Week's Market Forecast and Medium/Short-Term Trading Strategies (Detailed explanation in Part 2) 

• HYPE Daily-Level Structure Analysis (Detailed explanation in Part 3)

• HYPE This Week's Market Forecast and Short-Term Trading Strategy (Detailed explanation in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Core Views:

• BTC Short-Term Trading Results: Last week, Bitcoin executed one short-term long position (1x leverage), successfully achieving a return of approximately 2.02%. (Detailed explanation in Table 1)

• BTC Trend Forecast Market Validation: In last week's article, we pointed out that the market was likely to engage in high-level wide-range consolidation around the $79,500～$80,600 area. The current market movement has validated our previous forecast.

I. Let's First Look at the BTC Projection

1. Analysis of BTC's Structure Since the February Low: Two Key Path Projections and Long-Short Game

In our previous weekly review, while analyzing Bitcoin's daily correction structure since the October 2025 high ($126,200), we proposed three main wave structure projections. Currently, because in Projection 2 (complex five-wave correction structure), the rebound cycle of Wave D has significantly surpassed the preceding Wave B, excessively extending in the time dimension and disrupting the balance of the wave structure, its probability has substantially decreased. Therefore, the core market divergence and future direction choice will focus on the remaining two projections. This issue will conduct an in-depth analysis and probability comparison of these two projection paths.

① Path One: Adjustment Ends, New Uptrend Has Started (Bullish Mindset)

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 1

As shown in (Figure 1), this view posits that the daily-level correction starting from the previous high of $126,200 has completed a three-wave A-B-C structure, where Wave C ended at $60,000 (the low on February 6th). The market has shifted from a downtrend to an uptrend. It is currently running the Major Wave I (the initial impulse wave). (This content was detailed in previous articles and will not be repeated here.)

•  Major Wave I (Initial Impulse Wave): From $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, running for approximately 100 days, with a maximum gain of about 38.1% during this period, and is still ongoing.

•  Potential Major Wave II (Corrective Wave): After the end of Major Wave I, the upcoming corrective wave will not see its low break below $60,000.

② Path Two: Monthly-Level Correction Structure, Currently in B-Wave Rebound (Bearish Mindset)

Bitcoin _ Monthly K-line Chart:

Figure 2

As shown in (Figure 2), this view posits that the correction starting from the previous high of $126,200 may present a monthly-level a-b-c three-wave correction structure, and is currently running the b-wave rebound.

•  Wave a (Declining Wave): From $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasting about 4 months (approximately 122 days), with a maximum decline of about 52.5%.

•  Wave b (Rebound Wave): From $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, lasting over 3 months (about 100 days), with a maximum gain of about 38.1%, and is still ongoing.

•  Potential Wave c (Declining Wave): After the end of Wave b rebound, the upcoming corrective wave may see its low break below the $60,000 mark.

③ Assessing the Likelihood of "Path Two" from a Monthly Perspective

The Bitcoin monthly chart shows: From January 1, 2017 to the present (only this complete segment of trading data is intercepted), it can be subdivided into a 4-segment structure; 

•  Segment 0-1 (Uptrend Cycle): From $751 (2017-01-01) to $69,000 (2021-11-10), lasting about 59 months (approximately 1774 days).

•  Segment 1-2 (Correction Cycle): From $69,000 (2021-11-10) to $15,476 (2022-11-21), lasting about 13 months (approximately 376 days). A deep retracement against the previous uptrend phase (i.e., Segment 0-1), with a maximum decline of about 77.57%.

•  Segment 2-3 (Uptrend Cycle): From $15,476 (2022-11-21) to $126,200 (2025-10-06), lasting about 35 months (1050 days). The main impulse wave creating new all-time highs, with a maximum gain of about 715.46%.

•  Segment 3-4 (Correction Cycle): From $126,200 (2025-10-06) to the present, running for about 7 months (approximately 223 days), with a maximum decline of 52.46%, and is still ongoing. A retracement against the previous main impulse wave (i.e., Segment 2-3).

•  From a monthly perspective, the current market is in the 3-4 correction cycle. If it follows the principles of cycle alternation and time symmetry, and may have a certain proportional relationship in magnitude and time with the "1-2 correction segment" and the "2-3 uptrend segment," then the probability of the correction structure described in "Path Two" occurring increases significantly. This means the current rebound since the February 6th low is merely part of a larger-scale correction.

④ Based on the above analysis of the two paths, both have realistic possibilities in the current macro and technical environment. To study their relative probability, the core lies in examining the nature of the rebound rally that started from the low on February 6th. Its running time span and spatial magnitude have become key judgment criteria.

⑤ Our core views are as follows:

•  If this round of rebound exhausts itself and ends in the near future, the probability of the market choosing "Path Two" will significantly increase.

•  Conversely, if the rebound continues to extend in both time and space, the likelihood of the market choosing "Path One" will substantially increase accordingly.

To this end, we propose an observable quantitative threshold: if the height of this rebound can break through the $90,000 to $93,100 area, it could serve as an important factor confirming whether the market structure has undergone an essential change.

We also believe that, regardless of which path the market chooses, by analyzing historical cycle patterns and macro liquidity expectations, a relatively reliable bottom structure is more likely to gradually form and be confirmed in the fourth quarter of this year.

2. In-depth Analysis of BTC's Hourly Level Structure: (Using 4-hour as the analysis cycle)

Bitcoin _ 4-Hour K-line Chart

Figure 3

As shown in (Figure 3), from the departure segment of "Zone C" (26-27) to present; 

• On the 4-hour chart, it can be subdivided into 6 segments: 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32. Among these, because segments 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31 overlap, they constitute Zone D.

 • Currently, the departure segment (31-32) is moving downward and has broken below the support of the "Zone D" lower rail ($79,200) and the "Zone C" upper rail ($78,500). If the price subsequently confirms an effective breakdown of the $78,500～$79,200 area, then the daily-level correction structure may be initiated.

II. Next Steps for Operation

1. BTC Market Trend Forecast for This Week:

This week's core view: The key to the trend lies in observing the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears over the $78,500～$79,500 area. The gain or loss of this area can serve as an important basis for judging whether the coin price can maintain a high-level consolidation or turn downward for an adjustment. 

2. Key Resistance Levels:

    • First Resistance Zone: $78,500～$79,500 area (near the upper/lower rails of the two zones)  

    • Second Resistance Zone: $83,500～$84,500 area (previous high-volume long-short trading range) 

3. Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Level: $73,500～$75,000 area (previous important support level)   

    • Second Support Level: $69,500～$70,500 area (previous important support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (excluding sudden news impacts)

① Medium-term Strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 4

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in (Figure 4), based on trading rules, the medium-term market direction is not yet clear. This week, the medium-term strategy will maintain a cash position and wait-and-see.

② Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% position, set stop-loss points, and look for "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the operating cycle).

③ To dynamically cope with complex market developments in short-term trading, we have prepared two specific operation plans, A and B, in advance.

 • Plan A: Rebound Meets Resistance, Sell High Short.

    • Entry: When the coin price rebounds to the $78,500～$79,500 area and meets resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position below 30%.

    • Risk Control: Initial stop-loss set above $80,600.

    • Exit: When the adjustment approaches an important resistance level and combines with a model signal, gradually close the position to take profit.

• Plan B: Effective Breakdown of Support, Follow the Trend Short.

    • Entry: When the coin price effectively breaks below the $73,500～$75,000 area support, combined with a top signal from the model, establish a short position below 30%.

    • Risk Control: Initial stop-loss set above $76,500.

    • Exit: When the decline reaches an important support level and combines with a model signal, gradually close the position to take profit.

III. After Discussing BTC, Let's Look at HYPE

While BTC is stuck in a tug-of-war within the $78K-$82K range, neither bulls nor bears gaining an edge, HYPE has been hitting new highs on its own, gaining over 10% this week.

HYPE _ Daily K-line Chart

Figure 5

1. As shown in (Figure 5), HYPE's upward move starting from the January 21st low of $20.46 can be divided into nine segments on the daily chart: 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, 8-9. Since the recent price hit a new high of $47.30 (point 9) since the $20.46 low, the current price structure remains in a daily-level uptrend.

2. In (Figure 5), because segments 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4 overlap, they collectively form a daily-level "rising zone".

3. If the HYPE price can consistently operate above the key point of $38.41 (upper rail of the zone), the market is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern on the daily timeframe, digesting the previous gains and accumulating directional momentum.

 IV. HYPE Trend Judgment and Subsequent Operation Forecast  

1. HYPE Market Trend Forecast for This Week:

This week's core view for HYPE: Focus on observing the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears near the upper rail of the zone ($38.41) and the previous high ($45.76).

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week:

Based on the current market structure, the following three short-term operation plans have been optimized and formulated, centered around the game between the "upper rail of the zone ($38.41) and the previous high ($45.76)".

• Plan A: Breakout Long (Trend Continuation)

If the price effectively breaks and holds above the $45.76 support level, combined with a bottom signal triggered by the two models, consider a small long position. Position size must be controlled below 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

• Plan B: Breakdown Short (Trend Reversal)

If the coin price effectively breaks below the $45.76 support level, combined with a top signal triggered by the two models, consider a small short position. Position size must be controlled below 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

• Plan C: Support Long (Trend Reversal within Uptrend)

If the price pulls back to near $38.41, stops falling, and shows signs of stabilization, combined with a bottom signal triggered by the two models, consider a small long position. Position size must be controlled below 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

V. Finally, Let's Talk About Results

1. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Table 1)

Strictly following the operation plan and the trading signals from our self-built spread trading model and momentum quantitative model, we completed one short-term trade (long position) last week, yielding a profit of 2.02%.

① Summary of Bitcoin Short-Term Trade Details: (Leverage*1x