BIT 投研：黃金突然大跌後，為何反而可能更快衝向 5,000 美元？
- 核心觀點：當前黃金回調屬於階段性調整而非趨勢反轉，核心邏輯在於美元走弱與利率路徑重定價；量化模型訊號顯示歷史勝率約70%，預計下一階段目標價約5,306美元。
- 關鍵要素：
- 市場在計入加息風險（年內加息一次）與預期下任聯準會主席Warsh偏鴿之間存在矛盾，導致利率定價難以持續，美元可能走弱。
- 量化與趨勢模型同步轉強，過去10次類似訊號觸發後，黃金兩個月平均漲幅約12.8%，對應目標價5,306美元，歷史勝率約70%。
- 美元指數DXY在2025年7月、11月及2026年3月三次突破100關口失敗，顯示美元反彈動能減弱。
- 美國債務規模已增至39萬億美元，財政擴張壓力強化黃金長期儲值邏輯，債務未隨金價回調而收縮。
- 技術面上，金價在4,300-4,400美元區間獲支撐，低點逐步抬升至4,500美元，牛市結構完好，當前處於三角收斂蓄勢階段。
- 未來關鍵催化因素包括5月中美會晤、6月FOMC會議、7月金磚國家峰會及9月財政懸崖，預計將推動流動性寬鬆邏輯回歸。
The market is currently undergoing a macro repricing phase dominated by the trajectory of the US dollar and the path of interest rates. Although gold has experienced a notable pullback recently, its overall bullish structure remains intact. On one hand, the market is repricing the risk of a rate hike within the year; on the other, there is a widespread expectation that the next Federal Reserve Chair, Kevin Warsh, will adopt a more dovish policy stance. This tension between the two forces suggests the current market pricing of the interest rate path may be unsustainable. Once the market begins to correct this expectation, the US dollar could weaken again, and real interest rates are expected to decline, opening up further upside for gold.
From a trading signal perspective, both the quantitative model and the trend model have recently turned positive simultaneously. Historical data shows that after 10 similar signals triggered in the past, gold posted an average gain of approximately 12.8% over the subsequent two months, corresponding to a target price of around $5,306, with a historical win rate of about 70%. Meanwhile, the DXY attempted to break the 100 mark three times — in July 2025, November 2025, and March 2026 — but failed each time, indicating that the dollar's rebound momentum is weakening. Against this backdrop, this report suggests the current pullback is more akin to a periodic correction rather than a trend reversal.
Repricing of the Dollar and Interest Rates: Gold's Core Thesis Remains Unchanged
In the coming months, the most critical variable for gold remains the repricing of the US interest rate path. Powell has confirmed that the late-April FOMC meeting will be his last as Chair, making the June 17 FOMC meeting the first under Kevin Warsh. Warsh has previously stated multiple times that the productivity gains from AI have a deflationary effect, and the market broadly expects his policy stance to be more dovish than the current one.
However, at the same time, the market has fully priced out any rate cuts for the year and has even begun to price in a rate hike. This pricing logic contains a clear contradiction. If the June dot plot begins to counter the current expectation of "one rate hike this year," gold could quickly reprice upwards. The September 16 FOMC meeting is also seen as a key window; historically, after rate cuts in September 2024 and 2025, both gold and Bitcoin experienced significant rallies.
Furthermore, US debt expansion and fiscal pressures are reinforcing gold's long-term thesis. The current US national debt has reached $39 trillion, an increase of approximately $2.7 trillion since the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Bill" in July 2025. Gold has pulled back, but the debt has not contracted. Once the market refocuses on the narrative of liquidity and fiscal expansion, gold is expected to challenge its all-time highs once again.
Technical and Capital Structure Improvements Simultaneously Suggest Gold May Enter a New Upward Phase
From a technical perspective, gold's current structure remains constructive. During this adjustment, the price found solid support in the $4,300 to $4,400 range and further lifted its lows in early May, stabilizing around the $4,500 level. The pattern of higher lows indicates that the bullish structure remains intact. Gold is currently consolidating within a narrow symmetrical triangle pattern. A breakout to the upside could lead to a renewed challenge of the previous all-time highs.
Historically, gold has advanced in rough increments of $1,000. Therefore, $5,300 appears to be a reasonable target for the next leg, while $6,300 could be a potential target for later this year or next year. Simultaneously, several catalysts are approaching in the coming months, including the Trump-Xi meeting in May, the June FOMC meeting, the BRICS summit in July, and the US fiscal cliff in September. As the market begins to reprice the dollar, interest rates, and the liquidity path, gold's relative advantage could be further enhanced.
Overall, while this gold pullback has been significant in magnitude, the trend structure has not been broken. A weakening dollar, repricing of the interest rate path, global reserve diversification, and US fiscal pressures are gradually forming a new macro convergence. Meanwhile, quantitative and trend models have already turned bullish, and several key catalysts are set to materialize over the coming months. For the market, the key question at this stage is no longer short-term inflation fluctuations, but when the market will revert to a liquidity and policy accommodation narrative. Once this process begins, gold could enter a new phase of accelerated upside.
Some of the above views are from BIT on Target. Contact us to get the full BIT on Target report.
Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.
