BTC 市占率衝上 61%，山寨季要來了嗎？

Original title: Bitcoin market dominance moves above 61%: Will altcoins follow?

Original author: Trading View

Original compilation: Peggy, BlockBeats

Editor's note: Bitcoin remains the main theme of the current crypto market rebound. Over the past two months, BTC has risen approximately 36% from its low of $60,000, and its market dominance has climbed above 61%, reaching its highest level since November last year. This indicates that while market sentiment has somewhat recovered, capital is still flowing back primarily into Bitcoin, rather than altcoins.

However, the altcoin market is also beginning to show early signs of recovery. The proportion of altcoin trading volume on Binance has increased from 31% in March to 49%, and TOTAL3, the total crypto market cap excluding BTC and ETH, has also rebounded to a two-month high. Meanwhile, some altcoins have reclaimed their 200-day moving averages, and their overall losses are narrowing.

But this does not yet signal the arrival of an "altcoin season." Although the AltSeason Index has recovered to 28.6, it is still far from the strong altcoin cycle threshold of 75 or above. In other words, capital is beginning to spread outward from BTC and ETH, but the rotation remains mild.

Altcoins have not fully launched; they have merely emerged from their weakest phase. The current market is still dominated by Bitcoin, with altcoins in a recovery observation period. Whether a true altcoin rally can materialize next depends on BTC's ability to maintain stability and whether altcoin trading volumes and market capitalization can continue to improve.

Below is the original text:

On Wednesday, Bitcoin's market dominance rose to 61%, reaching its highest level since November 2025. This metric has been steadily climbing from 58.44% in early April, indicating that the current upward trend is still more heavily tilted towards BTC rather than the broader crypto market.

At the same time, altcoin trading volume on Binance has also increased by 49% over the past two months; additionally, 12.6% of altcoins on Binance have reclaimed their 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

One-week chart of Bitcoin market dominance. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Altcoins Show Early Signs of Recovery

Crypto analyst Darkfost stated that since hitting a low of $60,000 on February 6, Bitcoin has risen 36%, pushing its market dominance to 61.3%.

Although altcoins have been under pressure for most of this period, TOTAL3, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, has risen 17% to a two-month high of $765 billion. The pace of altcoin recovery still lags behind BTC, but multiple indicators are beginning to improve.

One-week chart of TOTAL3. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

CryptoQuant data shows that trading activity in the altcoin market is slowly picking up. Using the combined trading volume of BTC and ETH futures on Binance as a benchmark, the proportion of altcoin trading volume rose to 49% on Wednesday, up from 31% in March. This change suggests that after months of capital concentration towards Bitcoin and Ethereum, market participation in assets beyond these two major cryptocurrencies is increasing.

Darkfost added that this capital rotation is still relatively mild and remains significantly distant from the aggressive rotation phase seen during the previous altcoin rally in 2024.

Altcoin trading volume share. Source: CryptoQuant

Exchange Volume Trends Point to Capital Rotation

Market analyst CW8900 pointed out that the recovery in trading activity on centralized exchanges (CEX) is another signal of improved market participation beyond Bitcoin.

According to the analyst, excluding the top five cryptocurrencies by market cap, altcoin trading volume has been steadily increasing over the past few weeks.

CEX volume share compared to the top five cryptocurrencies. Source: CryptoQuant

The 90-day AltSeason Index has also risen to 28.6, marking its fastest recovery rate in months. This index measures whether a majority of altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over a specific period. Typically, a reading above 75 indicates a strong altcoin cycle. However, CW8900 added:

"This indicator also shows that there hasn't truly been an altcoin season in this cycle. The peak of the AltSeason Index was in early 2024, but even then, the value was relatively low compared to past altcoin seasons."

CryptoQuant data also shows that after months of significant underperformance relative to Bitcoin, the overall altcoin market has improved. Currently, the average altcoin price is 23.47% below its 200-day simple moving average, a significant recovery from the earlier low of 44.4% below during this cycle. Similar readings were previously seen in late 2022, near the end of the bear market.

Average altcoin performance relative to the 200-day simple moving average. Source: CryptoQuant

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