BIT Investment Research: Multiple Signals Simultaneously Turn Positive – Has Bitcoin’s Repair Rally Finally Begun?

In previous two reports, we suggested that the bear market phase for Bitcoin might be nearing its end. Currently, as the price retakes key technical levels, multiple indicators — including the trend model, the 21-week moving average, and on-chain capital flows — are forming a confluence, gradually increasing market confidence in this assessment. Meanwhile, the $73,000 level has served as a critical watershed since March 2024, representing a key threshold for confirming a trend reversal in this cycle.

From a price structure perspective, Bitcoin has returned above the 21-week moving average, a level of significant importance within the bull/bear framework. Additionally, the monthly RSI and weekly stochastic oscillator are both positioned in ranges historically associated with bottoming zones, further reinforcing the view that the market is transitioning from a cyclical bottom to a recovery phase. Although short-term macro variables may still cause fluctuations, against the backdrop of gradually improving technicals, Bitcoin's trajectory is beginning to exhibit structural characteristics of shifting from a "bounce" to a "trend recovery".

Technical Signal Confluence: Key Moving Averages and Trend Models Point to Recovery Phase

Currently, Bitcoin's price has reclaimed the 21-week moving average, a signal historically viewed as an important confirmation condition for entering a new upward cycle. If the weekly close can stabilize above this level, the market will likely transition from a consolidation/recovery phase to a trending uptrend.

Historical backtesting shows that the 21-week moving average not only effectively identifies trend reversals but also helped investors avoid significant drawdowns during the 2021/2022 bear market. In the current cycle, if the price confirms a foothold in the $78,000–$79,000 range, this indicator may trigger an entry signal once again.

Simultaneously, the trend model has turned bullish. Given Bitcoin's characteristics of strong trends and high volatility, after several previous false signals, this current trend has stronger conditions for sustainability. The synchronized improvement of multiple technical indicators across different timeframes makes the current market environment more closely resemble historical key phases of bottoming and upward recovery.

Accelerating Capital Flow Recovery: Multi-Channel Inflows Support Market Structure Improvement

Alongside the improving technical picture, changes in capital flows are further reinforcing this trend. Since April, combined inflows from stablecoins, Bitcoin ETFs, futures leverage, and Strategy purchases have brought approximately $18.7 billion back into the market, pushing total capital inflows to their highest level since July 2025.

On-chain data also shows that after experiencing approximately $25 billion in capital outflows earlier, the market's capital flow situation has begun to warm up, with the recovery pace noticeably faster than in the 2022 cycle. This suggests the market structure is completing its rebalancing more quickly after this adjustment.

Notably, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues to raise funds and purchase Bitcoin through its STRC instrument. Its cumulative financing scale this year has reached approximately $11 billion, providing a stable source of buying support for the market. As long as the STRC spread remains within a reasonable range, this financing mechanism can operate continuously, translating into incremental demand. The capital recovery is no longer reliant on a single channel but stems from synchronized improvements across multiple dimensions. This reduces the probability of another sharp decline in Bitcoin and provides a foundation for the price to advance towards the target range of $88,000.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a critical phase transitioning from "technical repair" to "capital-driven recovery". Multiple indicators — including the trend model, 21-week moving average, RSI, and on-chain capital flows — are forming a confluence. Historically, such signals have often corresponded to windows where the market moves from a phase-based bounce towards a trending recovery. Furthermore, the improvement in capital flows is accelerating and coming from more diversified sources, making the current market structure more robust compared to previous cycles.

However, macro variables can still introduce phase-based disruptions. For example, uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy path or changes in the STRC spread could impact short-term rhythm. Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a unilateral rapid uptrend; instead, it is more likely to see a gradual ascent amidst volatility. Yet, based on the current combination of technicals and capital flows, the market direction has become clearer than before, and the trend recovery is gradually unfolding.

The above perspectives are partially derived from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the full BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: Market risks exist, and investment requires caution. This content does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset transactions may involve significant risk and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.