25億美元爆倉：加密市場中了跟跌不跟漲詛咒

Original | Odaily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Ding Dang (@XiaMiPP)

A flash crash has occurred once again.

On the night of January 31st, Bitcoin briefly fell below $78,000, touching a low of $75,700, with a 24-hour drop of 7.6%. This decline was not only extremely rapid but, more critically, it decisively broke through the price range where BTC had been consolidating for nearly three months, retracing to levels not seen since April 2025.

The situation for ETH is even more concerning. Its price fell below the $2,400 mark, with a 24-hour plunge of 12.28%, nearly erasing all gains made since July 2025. Solana was not spared either, with its price dropping below $100, marking a single-day decline of 13.74% and returning to levels last seen in February 2025.

The collective downturn of mainstream assets seems to be approaching a new critical point.

In the derivatives market, liquidations over the past 24 hours amounted to $2.522 billion, with long positions liquidated at $2.411 billion and short positions at $115 million. The largest single liquidation order occurred on Hyperliquid - ETH-USD, valued at approximately $222 million. Notably, liquidations in just the past hour alone reached a staggering $1.14 billion.

The Starting Point of the Decline Lies Beyond the Crypto Market

The first domino in this market movement did not fall on-chain.

Looking at the timeline, market tension began to escalate noticeably from January 29th. A sudden intensification of geopolitical risk was one of the earliest triggers captured by the market. The US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its strike group entered a "darkened ship" status with communications severed, while statements from Iran also clearly shifted towards a posture of readiness for conflict. Odaily had previously provided a detailed analysis in the article "From Geopolitical Tension to Liquidity Tightening, BTC Dragged into Uncontrolled Market Conditions".

Even so, the speed of the crypto market's decline this time far exceeded expectations. What truly caused the risk to spill over rapidly was the simultaneous collapse in the precious metals market.

After Gold and Silver Fell, Crypto's Uncontrolled Decline Accelerated

On January 29th, after briefly surpassing $5,600, gold rapidly reversed course, falling to a low of around $4,740, a maximum drop of 15.7%. Silver's correction was even more severe. After breaking above $120, it plummeted sharply to a low of $76.6, a maximum decline of 37%.

Dirk Malach, Managing Director at SLC Management, pointed out that the plunge in gold and silver began with the market's reaction to reports that Trump would nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Warsh's resume carries distinct hawkish undertones, which to some extent weakened the expectation of a "long-term, broad-based devaluation of the US dollar." The market is now re-anchoring to a more orderly monetary policy path. Related reading: "'Estée Lauder Son-in-Law' Kevin Warsh to Helm the Fed: Is This Hawkish Veteran a Crypto Ally?"

Seth R. Freeman, Senior Managing Director at GlassRatner Advisory & Capital Group, also believes the "good news" in this nomination is that the market might no longer have to repeatedly deal with the uncertainty and emotional disturbance caused by Trump's persistent pressure on the Fed. The sharp decline in gold and silver already reflects the market's repricing for a stronger dollar environment. In his view, it wouldn't be too surprising if metal prices fail to show a significant rebound under these circumstances. Conversely, traders heavily positioned in precious metals without effective hedging might face continued pressure, especially silver bulls. By next Monday, some trading accounts could suffer severe losses.

Furthermore, analysts mentioned that month-end concentrated profit-taking trading behavior, and hedging operations by banks to guard against sudden declines, may have amplified the selling pressure in a short period.

Adrian Ash, Head of Research at BullionVault, stated that in his 20 years participating in the precious metals market, he has never seen a similar market move. However, he downplayed the narrative of a "concentrated retail exodus," pointing out that abnormal volatility also occurred in base metal markets like copper—for instance, copper futures fell 4.5% on Friday. If it were only gold and silver, it could be attributed to retail sentiment, but the base metals market has almost no retail participation.

Bitcoin Hits Historical Low Relative to Gold

Data from Bitwise Europe shows that the price ratio of Bitcoin to gold has fallen to a historical low. This indicator has appeared near Bitcoin's cyclical bottoms multiple times in the past.

This implies two coexisting realities: on one hand, Bitcoin is currently in a significantly weaker position relative to gold; on the other hand, this extreme weakness leads some analysts to view the current environment as a potential accumulation zone similar to the period before the 2015–2017 bull market launch.

The market widely observes that long-term holders are gradually absorbing the recent selling pressure. As capital rotates between safe-haven assets and risk assets, some traders anticipate that starting in February, there might be a phase of capital rotation from gold back to Bitcoin.

However, more cautious views point out that such capital rotation is not inevitable and requires continuous observation of changes in macro policies, the US dollar's trajectory, and overall risk appetite.

Risk Transmission and Redistribution of Chips

The collapse in gold and silver ultimately transmitted to the crypto market. It must be said that the crypto market is currently at the bottom of the food chain: when US stocks rise, crypto may not follow; when US stocks fall, crypto often falls deeper; and now, with precious metals falling, crypto has not been spared either. The crypto market seems trapped in a "curse" of following declines but not rallies.

In this situation, the "believers" who are long on crypto assets also seem to be losing their chips in this torrent.

Garrett Bullish (@GarrettBullish), the lucky one who profited the most from the 10/11 flash crash, failed to escape this disaster. His positions on Hyperliquid were fully liquidated, with a single liquidation exceeding $700 million, leaving his account balance at a mere $53.68. This was also the largest single liquidation in this event. Data shows that his cumulative losses on Hyperliquid over the past two weeks were approximately $270 million.

On-chain records further show that since starting to trade with this account in early October 2025, Garrett Bullish's historical cumulative PnL has incurred losses exceeding $128 million.

Behind the liquidations lies protocol revenue. Following Garrett Bullish's liquidation, the Hyperliquid ecosystem treasury, HLP, gained approximately $15 million in revenue. This single event provided HLP depositors with a return of about 5.8%, translating to an annualized yield of roughly 110%. Data indicates that HLP still holds ETH long positions valued at approximately $230 million.

The high-profile whale heavily long on ETH also seems to be struggling. According to on-chain data monitoring, the secondary fund Trend Research, under Yi Lihua, currently has a total collateral of 175.8k WETH (worth about $445 million) on Aave V3, borrowing approximately 274 million USDT. The liquidation price for the ETH position is $1,558, with a loan health factor of 1.34. During the market decline, Trend Research continued to add margin. Yesterday, it withdrew about 109 million USDT from Binance and deposited it into Aave to reduce the liquidation risk of its Ethereum position.

As of January 29th, Trend Research held approximately 651.3k ETH with an average entry price around $3,180. At the current price of $2,400, the unrealized loss is close to $500 million.

Conclusion

From the escalation of geopolitical risks to the collapse of precious metals, crypto assets have become the first to be abandoned in this process. Does this indicate that they are not a safe-haven asset and have not yet truly gained consensus support as a "value anchor," only passively bearing pressure amidst the fluctuations of macro sentiment?

This market cycle is forcing a re-examination of a question: in a period of deleveraging, what exactly justifies the long-term holding of crypto assets?