原文作者：Mikko

二級標題

原文作者：Mikko

• 聯儲如期更新了以及以及政策正常化以及

• 以及政策正常化的計劃，為市場勾勒了一條較為明晰的緊縮路徑。

• 從聲明中的調性來看，聯儲認為目前美國經濟的運行狀況soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate.

• 已經符合其政策目標gradually。通脹高於目標，就業市場足夠強勁。significantly既然達到了政策目標，那麼3月加息的阻礙已經被消除，尤其是Taper也將在3月終結，聲明中已經直接表明it will

• 從縮表的文件細節來看，剔除了之前“縮表的時間點仍然不明確，聯儲的措辭是加息進程（after）開始後啟動，但

• 一級標題

並未言明是否是首次加息就啟動。

一級標題一級標題）

Indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have improved in recent months but are being affected by the recent sharp rise in COVID-19 cases. Job gains have been solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially. Supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic and the reopening of the economy have continued to contribute to elevated levels of inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

聲明原文（有變化的論述為粗體）（之前聲明的第一段——“美聯儲致力於在時下這個充滿挑戰的時期使用其全部工具來支持美國經濟，從而促進其充分就業和價格穩定目標。”被完全刪除

The path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus. Progress on vaccinations and an easing of supply constraints are expected to support continued gains in economic activity and employment as well as a reduction in inflation. Risks to the economic outlook remain, including from new variants of the virus.

經濟活動和就業指標繼續加強。受疫情影響最嚴重的部門在最近幾個月有所改善，

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. With inflation well above 2 percent and a strong labor market, the Committee expects it will soon be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. The Committee decided to continue to reduce the monthly pace of its net asset purchases, bringing them to an end in early March. Beginning in February, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $20 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $10 billion per month. The Federal Reserve's ongoing purchases and holdings of securities will continue to foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses.

但亦正受到最近Omicron病例急劇增加的影響。近幾個月來，就業崗位的增加是穩固的，失業率已實質性地下降。與疫情和經濟重新開放有關的供需失衡繼續導致通脹水平高企。整體金融條件仍然寬鬆，部分反映了支持經濟的政策措施和美國家庭和企業的信貸流動。經濟的發展路徑繼續取決於病毒的走向。疫苗接種的進展和供應限制的緩解預計將支持經濟活動和就業的持續增長，通脹則將趨弱。經濟前景的風險仍然存在，包括來自病毒新變種的風險。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

委員會尋求在較長時期內實現充分就業和2%的通貨膨脹率。為了支持這些目標，委員會決定將聯邦基金利率的目標範圍保持在0-0.25％。由於

通貨膨脹率遠高於2%，且勞動力市場強勁，委員會預計很快將達到加息（提高聯邦基金利率的目標範圍）的標準。

The Federal Open Market Committee agreed that it is appropriate at this time to provide information regarding its planned approach for significantly reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. All participants agreed on the following elements:

在評估貨幣政策的適當立場時，委員會將繼續監測所收到的信息對經濟前景的影響。如果出現可能阻礙委員會目標實現的風險，委員會將準備酌情調整貨幣政策的立場。委員會的評估將考慮到廣泛的信息，包括對公共衛生、勞動力市場狀況、通貨膨脹壓力和通貨膨脹預期以及金融和國際發展的解讀。大幅縮表的原則（粗體為重點）

• The Committee views changes in the target range for the federal funds rate as its primary means of adjusting the stance of monetary policy.

• 聯邦公開市場委員會同意，在當下提供有關所計劃的

• The Committee will determine the timing and pace of reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet so as to promote its maximum employment and price stability goals. The Committee expects that reducing the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet will commence after the process of increasing the target range for the federal funds rate has begun.

• 大幅

• The Committee intends to reduce the Federal Reserve's securities holdings over time in a predictable manner primarily by adjusting the amounts reinvested of principal payments received from securities held in the System Open Market Account (SOMA).

• 削減美聯儲資產負債表規模的方法的信息是合適的。所有與會者都同意以下內容。

• Over time, the Committee intends to maintain securities holdings in amounts needed to implement monetary policy efficiently and effectively in its ample reserves regime.

• 委員會認為調整利率區間（聯邦基金利率目標範圍的變化）是其調整貨幣政策立場的主要手段。

• In the longer run, the Committee intends to hold primarily Treasury securities in the SOMA, thereby minimizing the effect of Federal Reserve holdings on the allocation of credit across sectors of the economy.

• 隨著時間的推移，委員會打算將證券持有量維持在其充足準備金制度下高效並有效執行貨幣政策所需的數量。

• The Committee is prepared to adjust any of the details of its approach to reducing the size of the balance sheet in light of economic and financial developments.

• 一級標題

從長遠來看，委員會打算在SOMA中主要持有美國國債，從而將美聯儲持有的證券對經濟部門間信貸分配的影響降到最低。

一級標題"an increase in policy interest rate would soon be appropriate"發布會要點

FOMC同意在3月初（"early March"FOMC傳達了很快就要開始加息（

）的預期。"remarkable progress"）FOMC同意在3月初（

）停止資產購買。"well above"勞動力市場已經取得了出色進展（，按很多標準衡量都非常強勁。由於勞動力供應受限，雇主難以填補職位空缺，薪資正以多年來最快的速度增長。隨著時間的推移，有充分的理由預計勞動力參與率和就業情況將得到進一步改善。

通脹仍遠遠高於（

）2%的長期目標。"nimble"）與新冠疫情和經濟重新開放有關的供需失衡繼續導致通脹高企，尤其是瓶頸和供給約束限制了生產在短期內對更高需求做出反應的速度。奧密克戎波次加劇了這些問題，影響規模和持續時間都比預期來得更嚴重。

價格上漲現已擴散到更廣泛的商品和服務領域。注意到超出生產率的持續薪資增長，有對通脹造成壓力的風險。與預測者一樣，FOMC繼續預計通脹會在今年年內回落。

FOMC需要靈活應變（正文一級標題

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答：正文"humble and nimble"正文"two-sided risks"正文

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問題2（Politico）：美聯儲能在不傷害就業和薪資的前提下，通過加息控制住通脹嗎？"quite a bit of room to raise interest rates"勞動力市場的問題在於，職位空缺比受僱人數要多得多。我認為有非常大的空間可供加息（

正文"entrenched"）。

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答：正文"a set of principles at a high level"問題3（華爾街時報）：今天的資產負債表聲明宣稱將“大幅”削減持倉。這是什麼意思？能透露縮表的步伐、具體操作和再投資的構成嗎？

），用以指導我們接下來就縮表步伐及其他所有問題做出的具體決定。

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答：正文"running in the background"我們認為資產負債表會以一種可預測的方式收縮，有點像在後台運行（

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問題4（Axios）：近幾週來的市場波動可能會影響政策路徑嗎？金融狀況收緊是否有助於實現美聯儲的緊縮目標？

答：正文

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問題5（路透）：接下來的加息步伐有什麼標準可以參考嗎？

同樣在關注風險，尤其是世界各地的風險。確實預計經濟在奧密克戎影響下會走軟一段時間，但認為這應該是暫時的，相信經濟的內在力量會在波次過後迅速顯現出來。

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答：正文"we're not going to stick with something that isn't working"問題6（CNBC）：資產負債表“後台運行”的意義及其反應方程

）。這就是它表達的意思，這是一份一般性聲明，而不是揣測操作的線索。

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問題7（彭博）：你一開始提到的“雙向風險”是什麼意思？

答：正文

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答：答：

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問題9（金融時報）：如果通脹回落不及預期，是否會考慮集中加息50bps？

答：正文

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問題11（福克斯）：供應瓶頸會在今年年底前得到緩解嗎？是否會考慮提速加息？

答：正文

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問題13（道瓊斯）：你覺得是疫情初期貨幣政策和財政政策的激進應對造成了當下的通脹問題嗎？

答：正文

問題14（MNI）：收益率曲線倒掛的風險對美聯儲政策調整的考慮有多重要？

答：正文

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答：正文