Analyst Lowers SK Hynix Q2 Earnings Forecast, but Anticipates Sustained Long-Term Profit Growth

Odaily Odaily reports that Citrini analyst jukan posted on platform X, stating that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae expects SK Hynix's operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 to be 60.4 trillion Korean won, a 61% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 556% increase year-over-year, which is 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion Korean won.

The analyst stated that the lowered forecast is mainly due to SK Hynix's higher proportion of HBM sales compared to peers, lower-than-expected price increases for general DRAM, and the stabilization of ASP (Average Selling Price) due to long-term supply agreements (LTAs). The forecast for the quarter-over-quarter growth rate of the comprehensive DRAM ASP in the second quarter of 2026 has been lowered to 28.9%, compared to the previous 50.0%; the growth rate for commodity DRAM ASP has been lowered to 34.2%, compared to the previous 60.6%. With the mass production of HBM4 officially commencing in the third quarter of 2026, the comprehensive ASP growth rate is expected to return to an average market sequential growth rate of approximately 10%.

However, the analyst believes that this adjustment is not a signal of an industry downturn. The recent forecast revision is a more realistic reflection of the 3 to 5-year LTA structure, which is expected to lead to more stable long-term profit growth. The year-over-year growth rates for operating profit from the 2026 to 2028 fiscal years are projected to be 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.