Bitcoin consolidates and gathers momentum, approaching a directional shift; HYPE reignites the short-driven trend｜Exclusive Analysis

This week, Bitcoin continues to rebound above the $57,820 low, with prices approaching the critical resistance zone of $65,700 to $67,300. The battle between bulls and bears is entering a white-hot phase — if the rebound stalls and falls back in this area, a daily-level adjustment may return; if it breaks through effectively, the short-term structure will shift towards a stronger bullish thesis. HYPE continues its correctional trend from the high of $72.97, and this week's focus is on the battle within the $62 to $63.5 zone. The medium-term outlook remains bearish, while short-term operations must strictly follow model signals, dynamically switching between Plan A and Plan B.

Core Trading Views for This Week:

• BTC Multi-Timeframe Structure Analysis (Detailed in Part 1)
• BTC This Week's Price Forecast & Medium/Short-Term Trading Strategies (Detailed in Part 2)
• HYPE Hourly Level Structure Analysis (Detailed in Part 3)
• HYPE This Week's Price Forecast & Short-Term Trading Strategies (Detailed in Part 4)

Market Validation of Last Week's Trading Strategy & Core Views:

• Validation of BTC Price Forecast: Last week's article clearly stated that Bitcoin's daily chart had entered a short-term consolidation range. The subsequent market movement confirmed our prediction.
• BTC Short-Term Trade Results: Last week, we executed one short-term long trade (1x leverage), successfully realizing a gain of approximately 3.45%. (Detailed in Part 5)
• Validation of HYPE Price Forecast: Last week's article clearly stated that if the price rebounded early in the week but failed to break the previous high of $72.97, it would indicate a reversal of the prior uptrend, potentially initiating a daily-level correction from the $72.97 high. As it stands, market movement is highly consistent with our assessment.

1. Bitcoin Multi-Timeframe Structure Analysis

1. Bitcoin Daily Level Structure Analysis: (Based on Analysis Post-May 6th)Figure 1: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart

① As shown in Figure 1: Since the correction started from the May 6th high of $82,850, the daily chart has displayed a four-segment correction structure: (0-1), (1-2), (2-3), (3-4).

② Since hitting the low of $57,820 on July 1st, the market is currently in the (3-4) rebound segment. The rebound high has already touched $65,600, approaching the key resistance at $65,700. Currently, this rebound segment may not be over, and the recent high of $65,600 is likely not the final point of "Endpoint 4."

③ If the (3-4) rebound shows clear signs of stalling and then corrects within the $65,700 to $67,300 zone, the first segment (Wave a) of the daily-level rebound initiated from the July 1st low of $57,820 might be over.

2. Deep Analysis of Bitcoin Hourly Level Structure: (Using 4-Hour Chart)

Figure 2: Bitcoin 4-Hour K-line Chart

① On the 4-hour chart, the rebound from the July 1st low of $57,820 clearly shows a seven-segment structure from (44-45) to (50-51). Among these, segments (45-46), (46-47), (47-48), (48-49), and (49-50) overlap, forming a "five-segment" consolidation zone E.

② Based on the current structure analysis, the price is in the (50-51) rebound segment.

• If the price effectively breaks the $65,700 resistance and continues its rebound, the probability of this segment upgrading to a departure segment from the consolidation zone increases significantly. The momentum relationship with the entry segment (44-45) must then be compared. If momentum divergence occurs between them by the time "Endpoint 51" concludes, the rebound initiated from "Endpoint 44" (~$57,820) might end, significantly raising the probability of subsequent correction.
• If the rebound fails to break the $65,700 resistance effectively, a short-term range-bound consolidation is highly probable.

2. Bitcoin This Week's Price Forecast & Trading Strategy

1. BTC This Week's Price Forecast:

Core View: Focus on the test result when the price rebounds to the key resistance zone of $65,700 to $67,300.

2. Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Zone: $65,700 – $67,300 (Previous major resistance area)
• Second Resistance Zone: $69,500 – $71,000 (Previous major resistance area)

3. Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Near $64,700 (Previous major support level)
• Second Support Zone: $60,950 – $62,000 (Previous major support area)
• Third Support Level: Near $57,820 (Previous major support level)

4. This Week's Trading Strategy (Excluding Unexpected News)

① Medium-Term Strategy:

Figure 3: Bitcoin Daily K-line Chart (Position Monitoring Model)

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 3, the current price has effectively broken below the "Bull-Bear Channel," confirming a shift in market structure to a bearish dominant mode.

• Maintain current medium-term short positions at approximately 20%.
• If the price rebounds to the $65,700 – $67,300 zone and shows signs of stalling, combined with top signals from our proprietary quantitative model, consider increasing medium-term short positions to within 50%.

② Short-Term Strategy:

Utilize 30% of capital, set stop-losses, and seek "spread" trading opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Operating timeframe: 30-min / 60-min)

③ To dynamically respond to complex market developments in short-term trading, we have drafted specific Plans A and B in advance.

Plan A: Tentative Shorting at Strong Resistance

• Entry: If the price meets resistance in the $65,700 – $67,300 zone, combined with top signals from the quantitative model, establish short positions of around 30%.
• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price adjusts near important support levels, combined with quantitative model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

Plan B: Light Longing at Strong Support

• Entry: After the price fails at the $65,700 – $67,300 zone and pulls back. If it shows signs of stabilization above the previous low of $57,820, combined with bottom signals from the quantitative model, establish long positions of around 30%.
• Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss.
• Exit: When the price rebounds near important resistance levels, combined with model signals, gradually close positions to take profits.

3. HYPE Hourly Level Structure Analysis

Figure 4: HYPE 4-Hour K-line Chart

1. As shown in Figure 4, the correction of HYPE from the July 7th high of $72.97 (Endpoint 61) can be divided into an eight-segment correction structure on the 4-hour timeframe. Among these, segments 62-63, 63-64, 64-65, 65-66, and 66-67 overlap, forming a "five-segment" bearish consolidation zone.

2. Last week's review indicated: During the subsequent (62-63) rebound, if "Endpoint 63" failed to break the previous high "Endpoint 61" ($72.97), it would signify the end of the daily uptrend from "Endpoint 54 to Endpoint 61," and the market would initiate a daily-level correction from "Endpoint 61." The market indeed corrected as expected last week, falling from "Endpoint 63 to Endpoint 68," with a maximum drawdown of approximately 16.17% during this period.

3. Based on the 4-hour chart analysis:

Comparing the momentum of the departure segment (67-68) with the entry segment (61-62) of the consolidation zone reveals that the downward momentum of the departure segment is significantly stronger than the former. This suggests that "Endpoint 68" ($58.16) is unlikely to be the final low of this correction. The market is currently running the (68-69) rebound segment, after which prices may see new correction lows.

4. HYPE This Week's Price Forecast & Short-Term Trading Strategy (07.20 ~ 07.26)

1. HYPE This Week's Price Forecast:

① Key Resistance Levels:

• First Resistance Level: $62 – $63.5 zone
• Second Resistance Level: $68 – $69.5 zone
• Third Resistance Level: Near $72.97

② Key Support Levels:

• First Support Level: Near $58.16
• Second Support Zone: $52 – $55 zone

Core View on HYPE This Week: Focus on the test result when the current rebound reaches the $62 – $63.5 zone.

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week:

If the price rebounds to the $62 – $63.5 vicinity or higher resistance zones and generates a clear correction signal, investors are advised to consider light short positions, strictly adhering to stop-loss discipline and keeping position size within 30%.

5. Bitcoin Short-Term Trade Review

Strictly following our trading plans and based on signals from our proprietary "Spread Trading Model" and "Momentum Quantitative Model," we executed one short-term long trade last week, achieving a total profit of approximately 3.45%.

1. Short-Term Trade Record: (See Table 1)

Bitcoin Short-Term Trade Detail Summary: (Leverage 1x)

Table 1

2. Short-Term Trade Review: (See Figure 5)

Entry Strategy:

a. When the price adjusted above $61,000, it showed signs of stabilization, forming a "bottom fractal" pattern on the K-line.

b. The "Momentum Quantitative Model" generated a bullish momentum divergence signal.

c. After the "Spread Trading Model" triggered strong bottom warning signals (white dot + red dot), the signal band (orange-yellow) in the chart broke above the horizon line (magenta), issuing a bottom-reversal buy signal.

Therefore, we established a 15% long position at $62,376.

Exit Strategy:

a. When the price rebounded near $65,700 and showed signs of stalling, forming a "top fractal" pattern on the K-line.

b. After the "Spread Trading Model" triggered consecutive top warning signals (white dot + green dot), the signal band (blue) in the chart broke below the skyline (green), forming a top convergence signal with the "Momentum Quantitative Model."

Therefore, we fully closed the position near $64,530.

Summary: This trade successfully yielded a profit of approximately 3.45%.

3. Short-Term Trade Diagram

Figure 5: BTC 30-min K-line Chart (Momentum Quantitative Model + Spread Trading Model)

6. Special Notes:

1. At Entry: Immediately set the initial stop-loss.
2. When Profit Reaches 1%: Move stop-loss to entry price (breakeven point) to protect capital.
3. When Profit Reaches 2%: Move stop-loss to the 1% profit level.
4. Continuous Tracking: For every subsequent 1% increase in profit, move the stop-loss up by 1% to dynamically protect and lock in gains.

Financial markets change rapidly; all market analysis and trading strategies require dynamic adjustment. All views, analytical models, and trading strategies presented in this article are derived from personal technical analysis, are solely for personal trading journal purposes, and do not constitute any investment advice or operational basis. Markets involve risk; invest cautiously. Do not make decisions based solely on this content.