散户疯狂买入，机构上调预期，SPCX后市怎么走？

Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web 3_golem)

Last Friday, SpaceX closed its first day of trading at $160.95, giving it a market cap of $2.1 trillion. Although SpaceX still created the largest IPO in US stock history, compared to the market sentiment built up before the listing, this result did not meet all expectations. In fact, research firm CFRA even gave SPCX a "Sell" rating, meaning Musk's "Mars story" received applause but no ticket sales. (Related reading: After SpaceX's debut: $2.1 trillion market cap, is it still worth chasing?)

Facing these market concerns, SPCX surprised everyone by surging at the US stock market open this Monday. According to Gate's US stock quotes, SPCX rose steadily after the open, finally closing at $192.5, a gain of 19.6%, with the closing price being the day's high. Its market cap rose to $2.519 trillion, making SpaceX the world's 8th most valuable company. However, market sentiment is far from cooling down. According to Hyperliquid data, SPCX's pre-market price has risen above $214. Therefore, it is highly likely that SPCX will continue Monday's upward trend after the US stock market opens on Tuesday, pushing its market cap past Amazon, which ranks 7th.

US and Iran Sign Memorandum of Understanding, Retail Investor Enthusiasm for SpaceX Remains Undiminished

On a macro level, the memorandum of understanding reached between the US and Iran this week brought important positive news to the US stock market. The market generally expects that against the backdrop of stabilizing geopolitical tensions, global stock markets may usher in a new round of gains, with SpaceX being one of the beneficiaries.

On June 15, Trump announced that an agreement had been reached with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. Unlike many previous one-sided rhetorical battles, this agreement was also acknowledged by Iran. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated the same day that the text of the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding had been finalized and would be formally signed in Switzerland this Friday (June 19).

The agreement was also confirmed a second time by the Iranian President. Furthermore, US Vice President Vance stated that the agreement between the US and Iran had been signed electronically over the weekend, indicating that the terms are already in effect, making it unlikely for either side to tear up the agreement. Following the news, the US stock market opened higher overall, with the Dow closing up 0.92%, the S&P 500 up 1.65%, and the Nasdaq up 3.07%.

Morgan Stanley believes that a long-term agreement between the US and Iran will see falling oil prices alleviate inflationary pressures. The US stock market is transitioning from a "single-stock rally" to a healthier, broader advance, with upward momentum potentially no longer limited to the tech sector, but gradually spreading to a wider range of cyclical industries.

In terms of market sentiment, SpaceX remains the most sought-after stock by retail investors. According to VandaTrack data, on June 16 (local US time), SpaceX saw a net retail buy of approximately $93.8 million, accounting for about 73% of the total net retail inflow into all US stocks that day. This means that for almost every $4 of incremental retail funds flowing into the US stock market, roughly $3 flowed into SpaceX.

With such strong market demand for SPCX, SpaceX's underwriters exercised the IPO's over-allotment option (Greenshoe mechanism), purchasing an additional 83.33 million shares. This brings the total number of IPO shares offered to 638,888,888 Class A common shares, and increases the total financing scale of this issuance to $85.7 billion. This scale surpasses the over-allotment arrangements of almost all technology company IPOs on record.

However, despite this, reports indicate that in this SpaceX IPO subscription, most qualified retail investors in the US only received about one share each. Therefore, under the extreme supply shortage caused by a low public float, concentrated buying by retail investors can significantly drive up the stock price.

What's the Outlook for SPCX?

Zerohedge: With Options Listing, Stock Price Could Be Pushed to $400

Zerohedge, an influential financial media outlet in the US stock market, published an article on June 16 stating that once SPCX options begin trading, its stock price could rise to $400 due to a gamma squeeze effect, surpassing Nvidia.

A Gamma Squeeze is essentially an upward spiral caused by options market makers being forced to chase and buy the underlying stock. SpaceX has an extremely low public float (4.2%) and very high retail buying enthusiasm. Retail investors who haven't yet allocated SPCX shares might instead turn to buying relatively cheaper call options. If massive amounts of capital frantically buy call options, market makers, in order to hedge their risk, would be forced to continuously buy SPCX spot, thus driving up the stock price and creating a positive feedback loop.

The surge of GameStop (GME) in 2021 is one of the most classic examples of this effect.

Oppenheimer: SPCX Will Continue to Outperform the Market

On June 15, before the US stock market opened, investment bank Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan initiated coverage on SpaceX with an "Outperform" rating and set a short-term price target of $190. Following the US market open on Monday, SPCX eventually closed at $192.5, which is largely in line with Oppenheimer's target price.

Timothy Horan is a 4.70-star analyst at Oppenheimer, primarily focusing on technology, communications, and telecom sectors. According to Tipranks data, his prediction success rate is 58.82%. He believes SpaceX is "the only fully vertically integrated AI company," controlling capital, data, large models, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent, and should not merely be viewed as a traditional aerospace company.

Peter H. Diamandis: Past Idle Funds Went to Bitcoin, Now They Go to SpaceX

On June 14, renowned entrepreneur, XPRIZE founder, and early SpaceX investor Peter H. Diamandis stated in an article that SpaceX is the "railroad to orbit," which will usher in a multi-planetary civilization for humanity, creating immense wealth much like the railroads did for the American West in the 19th century. He also predicted that within the next year, SpaceX will merge with Tesla, becoming the first $100 trillion company.

Simultaneously, he stated that for the past decade, whenever he freed up capital from other transactions, he would put it into Bitcoin. But now, whenever he has idle funds, he invests in SpaceX. Although he anticipates the stock price will fall when locked-up shareholders are able to sell their shares and some take profits, he says he invests in SpaceX not to chase quarterly stock price increases, but to drive the development of the extraterrestrial economy.

Brad Gerstner: SpaceX is a Must-Own Asset for Institutional Investors

On June 16, prominent Silicon Valley investor Brad Gerstner described SpaceX as a must-own asset for institutional investors on the latest episode of the BG2 podcast. His reasoning is that this company stands at the intersection of two main thematic trends: the space economy and the expansion of AI computing power.

Gerstner stated that those bearish on SpaceX focus on the company's revenue from last year and the investment banks' predictions for significant revenue growth over the next three years, questioning how many companies can achieve multi-fold expansion within three to four years. However, he argues that if investors believe in the direction of AGI development, they must accept the premise that the scale of global computing power construction needed will far exceed current market expectations. Combining this judgment with SpaceX's core business, he finds it difficult to identify another company or entrepreneur offering a more direct bet on the future.