Trump lần thứ 38 kêu gọi "sắp đạt được thỏa thuận", thị trường chứng khoán toàn cầu chứng kiến đợt tăng giá kiểu TACO

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser (@wenser2010 )

After the US military launched a surprise attack on Iran, and after Trump threatened "severe measures against Iran" only to later call them off, Trump, for the 38th time, declared "a final agreement is imminent", prompting global financial markets, including US stocks, to wake up as if from a dream and experience another "TACO-style rally."

This morning, the three major US stock indices closed higher collectively. The Dow rose 1.90%, the Nasdaq gained 3.42%, and the S&P 500 increased by 1.73%. Crypto-related stocks also rallied, with COIN rising 4.99% intraday and HOOD up 7.40%. Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher. South Korea's KOSPI index opened up 519.25 points, or 6.69%, at 8,283.2 points, triggering a circuit breaker at one point before expanding gains to 8%. Japan's Nikkei 225 index opened up 880.53 points, or 1.37%, at 65,097.80 points. Potentially influenced by this news, oil prices plunged 4.3%, while gold prices rebounded 3.1%.

As the US-Israel-Iran conflict enters its fourth month, global financial markets, particularly US stocks, are pricing in positive catalysts like the end of the war in advance, leading to a recent string of "news-driven rallies."

Macro Background: Trump's "Negotiation Shift," US CPI Hits 3-Year High, Fed Rate Hike Expectations Fade

Overall, the macro backdrop for today's stock market rally primarily involves a shift towards peace negotiations in the war, the release of US CPI data, and diminished expectations for Fed rate hikes.

Trump's Remarks Show "TACO Power" Again

According to the latest news overnight, Trump first canceled the planned strikes and bombing operations against Iran for that evening. Subsequently, he stated in a post that relevant consultations had been submitted to and approved by Iran's highest leadership. The final terms (both in overall concept and specific details) have been approved by all relevant parties, including the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Egypt. Although Iran and Israel later denied this, the market accepted it.

Additionally, Trump stated regarding the Iran issue that "an excellent deal has been reached" and said the relevant documents are in their final stages, expected to be finalized and signed in the coming days. He also mentioned the agreement could be signed in Europe, possibly this weekend, with US Vice President JD Vance in attendance. And "once Iran signs the agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will open." Although negotiations with Iran have been "lengthy," financial markets have chosen to "believe first" for now.

US Core CPI Annual Rate Hits 3-Year High

This Wednesday, the US May CPI data was released, showing:

• Seasonally adjusted CPI MoM: 0.5%, expected 0.50%, prior 0.60%.
• US May Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI MoM: 0.2%, expected 0.30%, prior 0.40%.
• US May Unadjusted CPI YoY: 4.2%, expected 4.20%, prior 3.80%, marking the highest since April 2023.
• US May Unadjusted Core CPI YoY: 2.9%, expected 2.90%, prior 2.80%, marking the highest since September 2025.

Some analysts believe that US inflation has returned to the "4% handle," and the peak of war-related inflation may be in the past. CPI has risen sharply for the third consecutive month, highlighting the increasing spending pressure on households as there are signs more consumers are dipping into savings to cover expenses. Following the data release, the probability of the Fed maintaining rates unchanged in June stood at 96.3%, significantly easing previous expectations for Fed rate hikes. Trump loudly commented on this data, saying: "I love inflation."

Expectations for Fed Rate Hikes This Year Ease Significantly

After the CPI data release, the latest news shows that the market has fully priced out expectations for a Fed rate hike this year.

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated, "US inflation remains uncomfortably high at 4%, but the weaker-than-expected core data does alleviate some pressure. With energy price increases being the main driver and housing costs easing, we haven't seen clear signs of broader second-round effects yet, which should allow the Fed to remain patient."

Afonso Borges, an analyst at Julius Baer Group, also pointed out that the modest rally led by short-term Treasuries following Wednesday's CPI report was "logical," as the better-than-expected inflation data should reduce the risk of a Fed rate hike later this year.

Japanese and South Korean Markets: Retail Investors Borrow to Buy the Dip, Yen Continues to Weaken

Shifting focus to the Japanese and South Korean stock markets, after market declines in the previous two days, they are currently in a significant rebound phase.

On June 10, according to Yonhap News Agency, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) experienced two days of sharp correction due to bearish US stock news and a slump in semiconductor stocks. During this period, overdraft account balances at major commercial banks increased by over 600 billion won (approximately 2.67 billion RMB). Analysts believe this indicates retail investors, expecting a market rebound after the sharp stock price decline, began using overdraft accounts for "leveraged investing."

According to Nikkei Asia, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise its short-term policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its monetary policy meeting on June 15-16, marking the highest policy rate level since 1995. Potentially influenced by this news, the US dollar against the Japanese yen (USD/JPY) rose 0.2% intraday, with the current exchange rate at 160.168.

Overall, capital flows into Japanese and South Korean stock markets are still growing steadily, but BoJ rate hikes could gradually tighten liquidity in Japanese capital markets. Bank of America analyst Shusuke Yamada stated that if the BoJ takes a hawkish stance and raises rates at its meeting next week, it is expected to support the yen. He noted that the market has already priced in the rate hike expectations.

Looking Ahead: Unclear War Situation, Institutions Warn of Deep Corrections, Stock Markets Face Major Liquidity Test

Although today's volatile "positive news" from Trump spurred gains in multiple global stock markets, a closer look at various dynamic factors reveals that market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic but bracing for potential deep corrections.

No Turning Point in US-Iran Situation

Ali Akbar Dareini from the Tehran-based Center for Strategic Research stated that despite Trump's announcement canceling the strike on Iran, there has been no change in the situation. From Iran's perspective, before any negotiations begin and before Iran is prepared to discuss nuclear issues, the US first needs to take confidence-building measures, which hasn't happened. The reality shows the US has taken no steps to de-escalate tensions. Iran's position is that it will not compromise under coercion.

Institutional Bulls Turn Cautious, Warning of Deep Correction

Alex Altmann, Head of Global Equity Strategy at Barclays, who has previously called for "holding positions" during market volatility and accurately timed rebounds, recently issued a rare cautionary warning. In his latest market assessment, citing technical overbought conditions, excessive sentiment, and macro pressures, he has turned bearish on short-term US stock performance. He believes the current US market is in the "middle of a structural correction," with the biggest concern being a severe disconnect between retail sentiment and macro reality. He even bluntly stated, "The S&P 500 could face a total correction of 6%-7%."

Recently, data from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment survey showed that the bearish percentage among investors surged to 47.7% in the past week, approaching the year's high of 52% (March 18), well above the historical average of 31%.

Additionally, several institutions have recently expressed bearish views: Previously, BofA Securities stated that investors should remain cautious about US stocks, as a growing number of bearish signals suggest the market is nearing a peak.

A team of strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a report dated June 5 that approximately 70% of bearish signals have now been triggered, consistent with the average level during historical market tops. The S&P 500 shows statistically significant overvaluation in 17 out of 20 valuation metrics, with 8 metrics exceeding levels seen during the tech bubble. Furthermore, high price-to-earnings ratio stocks are significantly outperforming low-valuation stocks, which strategists view as a sign of excessive speculation. Within the tech sector, the gap between the best and worst-performing quintiles has widened to its highest level since February 2000.

Of course, this view was openly opposed by the "new stock guru" Serenity, who argued that Bank of America's bearish rhetoric should be viewed cautiously, as a flood of negative news often arises when institutions need liquidity.

Regarding the South Korean stock market, on June 10, the open interest in put options on the Korea Kospi 200 index has surged sharply relative to call options recently, nearing levels that have previously signaled an impending market decline. As of the close of the last trading session, the ratio of protective puts (for hedging against declines) to speculative calls approached 2.5 times, the highest level in five years. This indicator has only touched this threshold a few times before. Notably, South Korean retail investors sold over 1 trillion won in overseas stocks in the first week of June, potentially signaling a return to their domestic market.

SpaceX IPO Looms, US Stock Market Faces Liquidity Test

The latest news indicates that retail subscription amounts for the SpaceX US IPO have exceeded $100 billion. Combined with previous reports that "SpaceX plans to raise $75 billion, with 30% of shares offered to individual investors," the current retail subscription ratio is already over 4 times oversubscribed.

US investment manager Jim Chanos stated that investors are pricing a grand narrative rather than realistic profit prospects, and SpaceX's valuation multiple has already far exceeded that of Tesla (TSLA.O). Furthermore, institutions like Franklin Templeton, and sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have joined the IPO subscription wave. According to foreign media reports, multiple institutional investors individually placed orders for around $10 billion or more in shares. Two days ago, the SpaceX IPO had already attracted over $250 billion in investment demand, higher than its planned $75 billion fundraising target, with oversubscription nearing 4 times. Following market trends, the oversubscription ratio could climb to 10 times before its official listing this Friday.

"Wall Street Oracle" and Bitmine Board Chairman Tom Lee commented that at this stage, US stock investors actively selling their existing holdings to gather cash for participating in this heavyweight IPO is causing a sustained capital diversion effect, potentially a major culprit for the recent weakness in US stocks. Christophe Boucher, Chief Investment Officer at ABN Amro Investment Solutions, also stated, participating in the SpaceX IPO is similar to buying cryptocurrencies about 15 years ago; you could either lose your entire principal or achieve exponential returns.

Although the SpaceX IPO has raised concerns about market liquidity shortages, according to market sources, S&P Dow Jones Indices believes SpaceX qualifies for fast-track inclusion in some of its indices. At that point, SpaceX could become a "phenomenal giant" in the US stock market.

In summary, global stock markets will continue to be influenced by factors such as fund liquidity, domestic market policies, and global geopolitical shifts like the US-Israel-Iran conflict. In the short term, be wary of Trump re-enacting market manipulation tactics of "threatening bearishness" and "TACO-style bullishness."