Từ khi kêu gọi mua HYPE ở mức 150 đô la đến khi thanh lý hoàn toàn chỉ trong ba ngày, Arthur Hayes còn lại bao nhiêu uy tín?

Original by Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Golem (@web3_golem)

How much market credibility does Arthur Hayes have left? Recently, Arthur Hayes, the "godfather of crypto perpetual swaps" and co-founder of BitMEX, has faced a public backlash. On-chain detective ZachXBT also publicly questioned how much exit liquidity he has created from his followers.

Liquidated Positions in HYPE, NEAR, WLD

Since last week, Arthur Hayes has executed multiple unexpected sell-offs at market tops.

Arthur Hayes had repeatedly stated publicly that HYPE would rise to $150 this cycle. On June 1st, he engaged in a heated debate with Kyle Samani, former co-founder of Multicoin Capital, for criticizing Hyperliquid and even made a $100,000 bet with him. However, just three days later, Hayes announced he had completely liquidated his positions in HYPE and NEAR, causing HYPE to drop over 13.6% that day. This sell-off did allow him to successfully sell at the top; after hitting a new all-time high of $75.5 on June 4th, HYPE began a downward trend and is currently trading around $62-$64.

Besides HYPE and NEAR, Hayes also liquidated his positions in ZEC and WLD. While selling ZEC might be justifiable due to the Orchard Pool attack, his sale of WLD resembles a classic "KOL pump-and-dump" scheme involving early accumulation, public shilling, and selling into the subsequent rally.

From publicly calling for WLD to completely dumping it, Arthur Hayes only "acted" for 3 days. On June 3rd, a day before selling HYPE, Hayes publicly called for WLD with a $10 target, claiming WLD would become an alternative for investors unable to directly participate in SpaceX equity deals. Following the news, WLD surged over 35% that day. But by June 6th, Hayes changed his tune, stating he had sold his entire WLD position because of "abnormal" pre-market price action in SpaceX. This flimsy explanation caused WLD to plummet over 20% that day.

The difference between Arthur Hayes and "third-rate KOLs" is that he writes detailed posts and often provides reasonable justifications for his actions from a macroeconomic and top-level design perspective.

On June 9th, Hayes published a lengthy article titled Reality Test (approx. 20 minutes read time) explaining his recent actions. He argues that three factors will burst the AI bubble: rising energy costs due to restricted traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the IPOs of three major AI stocks (SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI), and Trump's shift towards opposing AI for the midterm elections.

Consequently, his family office, Maelstrom, holds significant positions in US-listed energy producers and has sold off AI-related stocks and non-core crypto assets, holding only BTC and ETH.

Don't listen to Arthur Hayes' words, but watch his actions

Arthur Hayes' articles are adept at using extensive economic data and charts to support arguments, often adding political and historical perspectives to awe readers. But when you believe his words and invest real money following his lead, he might announce a complete liquidation and turn bearish the next day, as if completely forgetting what he said before, while your portfolio takes a simultaneous hit.

Such actions are not uncommon. As early as 2025, Hayes repeatedly performed the "first bullish, then dump" routine. The most classic example remains HYPE. In August 2025, Hayes touted HYPE during a speech at WebX in Japan, claiming the token had a potential 126x upside (Odaily Note: the price was $45.9 that day). Yet, just one month later, he announced he had sold his HYPE position, profiting millions of dollars, citing a need to avoid token unlock risks.

This recent sell-off by Hayes occurred right at the peak of HYPE's previous cycle. Subsequently, HYPE fluctuated and declined. Hayes didn't start buying HYPE heavily again until mid-January 2026. Looking at the chart, his entry point this time coincided perfectly with the cycle's low.

Similar examples include ETHFI and ENA, where he would publicly express bullish sentiment, then sell off without warning, ultimately achieving precise top exits. (Related reading: You ran again! Reviewing Arthur Hayes' top-exit records)

Long-term followers of Arthur Hayes have summed up a methodology: Don't listen to his words, but watch his actions. Build positions cautiously following his buys, and sell decisively following his sells.

However, if Hayes continues to pull these stunts, especially cases like manipulating WLD price fluctuations, regardless of how well his excuses are masked, his market credibility will be damaged. This is like a crypto version of the "boy who cried wolf" story; in the end, Hayes is bound to face the consequences.

In his latest article, he got one thing right: "I am still a gambler through and through," and gamblers rarely end well.