BTC rollercoaster ride, HYPE hits consecutive highs | Expert Analysis

After this week, it feels like riding a roller coaster.

This week, macro pressures were released in a concentrated manner—bond market crash, rising expectations of interest rate hikes, oil prices breaking $110, and BTC dropping below $78K, currently hovering in a critical range.

Structurally, I focused on analyzing two possible paths since the February low: whether it's a new uptrend that has already begun or a B-wave rebound within a larger monthly-level correction. This judgment has yet to be finalized, but the outcome of the tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the $78,500-$79,500 zone is the most important observation window this week.

In terms of operations, I remain on the sidelines for the medium term, and have prepared A/B two sets of plans for short-term trading around support and resistance levels, with position sizes controlled within 30% and strict adherence to stop-losses.

Key Trading Perspectives Summary for This Week:

• Analysis of BTC's multi-timeframe structure (comparison of two subsequent path projections) (Detailed in Part 1)

• BTC price forecast and medium/short-term trading strategy for this week (Detailed in Part 2) 

• Analysis of HYPE's daily-level structure (Detailed in Part 3)

• HYPE price forecast and short-term trading strategy for this week (Detailed in Part 4)

Market Verification of Last Week's Trading Strategy and Core Views:

• BTC short-term trading effectiveness: Bitcoin completed one short-term long position last week (1x leverage), successfully achieving a profit of approximately 2.02% (Detailed in Table 1).

• Market verification of BTC price forecast: In last week's article, we stated that the market would likely experience high-level wide-range consolidation around the $79,500～$80,600 area. Current market movements have validated our previous forecast.

I. Let's First Look at BTC Projections

1. Structural Analysis of BTC's Move Since the February Low: Two Key Path Projections and the Bull-Bear Battle

In previous weekly reviews, we analyzed the daily-level adjustment structure of Bitcoin since the October 2025 high ($126,200) and proposed three main wave structure projections. Currently, since in Projection 2 (complex five-wave adjustment), the rebound period of Wave D has significantly surpassed the preceding Wave B, excessively extending in the time dimension and breaking the balance of the wave structure, its probability has decreased substantially. Therefore, the core market divergence and future directional decision will focus on the other two projections. This article will deeply analyze and compare the probabilities of these two paths.

①. Path One: Adjustment Ended, New Uptrend Has Begun (Bullish Mindset)

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart:

Figure 1

As shown in Figure 1, this view holds that the daily-level adjustment starting from the previous high of $126,200 completed an A-B-C three-wave structure, where Wave C ended at $60,000 (the February 6 low). The market has transitioned from a downtrend to an uptrend. It is currently running the large Wave I (i.e., the initial upward wave). (This was detailed in a previous article and will not be repeated here.)

•  Large Wave I (Initial Up Wave): From $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, has been running for about 100 days, with a maximum gain of approximately 38.1% during the period. It is still in progress.

•  Potential Large Wave II (Corrective Adjustment Wave): The corrective wave that will run after Large Wave I ends, its low will not break below $60,000.

②. Path Two: Monthly-Level Adjustment Structure, Currently in a B-Wave Rebound (Bearish Mindset)

Bitcoin _ Monthly K-line Chart:

Figure 2

As shown in Figure 2, this view holds that the adjustment starting from the previous high of $126,200 may present a monthly-level a-b-c three-wave adjustment structure, and is currently running a b-wave rebound.

•  Wave a (Down Wave): From $126,200 (2025-10-06) to $60,000 (2026-02-06), lasting about 4 months (approx. 122 days), with a maximum decline of about 52.5%.

•  Wave b (Rebound Wave): From $60,000 (2026-02-06) to present, lasting over 3 months (approx. 100 days), with a maximum gain of about 38.1%. It is still in progress.

•  Potential Wave c (Down Wave): The corrective wave to follow the end of the b-wave rebound, its low may break below the $60,000 threshold.

③. Assessing the Likelihood of "Path Two" from a Monthly Perspective

The Bitcoin monthly chart shows: From January 1, 2017, to the present (only this complete section of trading data is shown), it can be subdivided into a 4-segment structure. 

•  Segment 0-1 (Up Cycle): From $751 (2017-01-01) to $69,000 (2021-11-10), lasting about 59 months (approx. 1774 days).

•  Segment 1-2 (Adjustment Cycle): From $69,000 (2021-11-10) to $15,476 (2022-11-21), lasting about 13 months (approx. 376 days). A deep correction for the previous upward phase (Segment 0-1), with a maximum decline of about 77.57%.

•  Segment 2-3 (Up Cycle): From $15,476 (2022-11-21) to $126,200 (2025-10-06), lasting about 35 months (1050 days). The main up-leg that set new all-time highs, with a maximum gain of about 715.46%.

•  Segment 3-4 (Adjustment Cycle): From $126,200 (2025-10-06) to present, has been running for about 7 months (approx. 223 days), with a maximum decline of 52.46%. It is still in progress. A correction for the previous main up-leg (Segment 2-3).

•  From a monthly perspective, the current market is within the 3-4 adjustment cycle. If it follows the principle of cycle alternation and time symmetry and maintains a certain proportional relationship in magnitude and time with the "1-2 adjustment segment" and the "2-3 up segment," then the probability of the adjustment structure described in "Path Two" increases significantly. This implies that the current rebound from the February 6 low is merely a part of a larger-scale adjustment.

④. Based on the projection analysis of the two paths above, both are realistically possible in the current macro and technical environment. To study their relative probability, the core lies in examining thenature of the rebound initiated from the February 6 low. Its running time span and spatial magnitude have become the key judgment criteria.

⑤. Our core views are as follows:

•  If this current rebound loses momentum and ends soon, the probability of the market choosing "Path Two" will increase significantly.

•  Conversely, if the rebound continues to extend in time and space, the likelihood of the market choosing "Path One" will increase substantially.

To this end, we propose an observablequantitative threshold: If the height of this rebound can break through the $90,000 to $93,100 area, it could become an important factor in confirming whether the market structure has fundamentally changed.

At the same time, we believe that,regardless of the path the market chooses, by analyzing historical cycle patterns and macro liquidity expectations, a relatively reliable bottom structure is more likely to gradually form and be confirmed in the fourth quarter of this year.

2. In-depth Analysis of BTC's Hourly-Level Structure: (Using 4-hour as the analysis timeframe)

Bitcoin _ 4-hour K-line Chart

Figure 3

As shown in Figure 3, from the departure segment (26-27) of "Consolidation Zone C" to present; 

• On the 4-hour chart, it can be subdivided into a 6-segment structure: 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32. Among these, segments 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31 overlap with each other, forming Consolidation Zone D.

 • Currently, the departure segment (31-32) is moving downwards and has broken below the support of the lower rail of "Consolidation Zone D" ($79,200) and the upper rail of "Consolidation Zone C" ($78,500). If the price subsequently confirms an effective breakdown of the $78,500～$79,200 area, a daily-level adjustment structure may be initiated.

II. Next Steps for Trading

1. BTC Price Forecast for This Week:

Core View This Week: The key is to observe the outcome of the battle between bulls and bears over the $78,500 ～ $79,500 area. The gain or loss of this area can serve as an important basis for judging whether the price can maintain a high-level consolidation or turn downwards for an adjustment. 

2. Key Resistance Levels:

    • First Resistance Zone: $78,500～$79,500 (Near the upper/lower rails of the two consolidation zones)  

    • Second Resistance Zone: $83,500～$84,500 (Previous dense bull-bear trading zone) 

3. Key Support Levels:

    • First Support Level: $73,500～$75,000 (Previous important support)   

    • Second Support Level: $69,500～$70,500 (Previous important support)

4. Trading Strategy for This Week (Excluding Unexpected News Impact)

①. Medium-term Strategy:

Bitcoin _ Daily K-line Chart: (Position Monitoring Model)

Figure 4

Position Monitoring Model: As shown in Figure 4, based on trading rules, the medium-term market direction is not yet clear. This week, the medium-term strategy remains on the sidelines with zero position.

②. Short-term Strategy: Utilize 30% of position capital, set stop-loss points, and look for"spread" opportunities based on support and resistance levels. (Using 30/60-minute as the operating timeframe).

③. In short-term trading, to dynamically respond to complex market evolution, we have preparedPlan A/B specific operating plans in advance.

 • Plan A:Rebound Fails at Resistance, Short on Rallies.

    • Entry: When the price rebounds to the $78,500～$79,500 area and encounters resistance, combined with a top signal from the quantitative model, establish a short position of up to 30%.

    • Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss above $80,600.

    • Exit: When the adjustment reaches an important resistance level and combined with a model signal, gradually close the entire position to lock in profits.

• Plan B: Effectively Breaks Below Support, Short on Breakdown.

    • Entry: When the price effectively breaks below support in the $73,500～$75,000 area, combined with a top signal from the model, establish a short position of up to 30%.

    • Risk Control: Set initial stop-loss above $76,500.

    • Exit: When the decline reaches an important support level and combined with a model signal, gradually close the entire position to lock in profits.

III. After BTC, Let's Look at HYPE

BTC is still waffling back and forth in the $78K-$82K range, with neither bulls nor bears gaining an advantage. HYPE, on the other hand, has been hitting new highs on its own, rising over 10% this week.

HYPE _ Daily K-line Chart

Figure 5

1. As shown in Figure 5, the uptrend of HYPE starting from its low of $20.46 on January 21 can be divided into nine segments on the daily chart: 0-1, 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, 4-5, 5-6, 6-7, 7-8, 8-9. Since the recent price reached a new high of $47.30 (Endpoint 9) since the uptrend from $20.46, the current structure remains in a daily-level uptrend.

2. As shown in Figure 5, since segments 1-2, 2-3, and 3-4 overlap with each other, they collectively form a daily-level "upward consolidation zone."

3. If HYPE's price can consistently operate above the key level of $38.41 (the upper rail of the consolidation zone), the market is expected to maintain a high-level consolidation pattern on the daily timeframe, digesting previous gains and accumulating directional momentum.

 IV. HYPE Trend Judgment and Subsequent Trading Forecast  

1. HYPE Price Forecast for This Week:

Core View on HYPE This Week: Focus on observing the battle between bulls and bears over the upper rail of the consolidation zone ($38.41) and the previous high ($45.76).

2. HYPE Short-Term Trading Strategy for This Week:

Based on the current market structure, we have optimized and formulated the following three short-term trading plans, centered around the battle between the "upper rail of the consolidation zone ($38.41) and the previous high ($45.76)."

• Plan A: Breakout Long (Trend Continuation)

If the price effectively breaks and holds above the $45.76 resistance, simultaneously triggering a bottom signal from two major models, consider a small long position. Position size must be controlled under 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

• Plan B: Breakdown Short (Trend Reversal)

If the price effectively breaks below the $45.76 support, simultaneously triggering a top signal from two major models, consider a small short position. Position size must be controlled under 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

• Plan C: Support Long (Trend Reversal)

If the price pulls back to near $38.41 and a stabilization signal appears, simultaneously triggering a bottom signal from two major models, consider a small long position. Position size must be controlled under 30%, and strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline.

V. Finally, Let's Discuss the Results

1. Short-term Trading Review: (See Table 1)

Strictly following the trading plan and the signals from our proprietary spread trading model and momentum quantification model, we completed one short-term (long) position last week, achieving a trading profit of 2.02%.

①. Bitcoin Short-term Transaction Details Summary: (Leverage * 1x)