Cerebras IPO tăng vọt 68%, thị trường on-chain đã định giá từ vài giờ trước

Regarded by the industry as "Nvidia's strongest challenger," Cerebras went public on the Nasdaq today.

Cerebras opened at $350, with an IPO price of $185. It briefly surged to $385, a premium of over 108% above the $185 IPO price, triggering an upside circuit breaker on its first day.

While this premium is astonishing, traders have found that TradeXYZ's on-chain Pre-IPO Perp was the most accurately priced platform for Cerebras, outperforming a host of traditional Pre-IPO platforms.

Rumor has it that even Morgan Stanley traders are watching the Cerebras price chart on Hyperliquid, source from community

What Exactly Does Pre-IPO Perp Disrupt?

Before diving into the comparison, let's first talk about Cerebras' IPO opening price.

On May 4th, Cerebras filed an amended S-1 with the SEC, with an initial price range of $115 to $125. This was the first public figure released by the joint underwriting team of Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Barclays, and UBS.

On May 8th, the price range was raised to $125 to $135. On May 11th, it was raised again to $150 to $160, and the number of shares was increased from 28 million to 30 million. On the evening of May 13th, the final price was set at $185. When trading opened on May 14th, the price jumped directly to $350.

Alright, now let's look at those platforms.

First up is Forge Global, a private secondary market used by professional institutions, which appears to have the worst pricing.

Forge is one of the world's largest private equity secondary trading markets, listed on the NYSE, serving institutional investors, VCs, and accredited individual investors. Its core product, "Forge Price," is an algorithmic pricing model that aggregates secondary market transactions, funding round information, and platform order book data, considered one of the most authoritative price references in the private market.

Accessing Forge requires accredited investor status, with an annual income threshold of $200,000 or net worth exceeding $1 million. It's not a place for the average person.

Cerebras' price trend on Forge is clear from the chart: from approximately $20 per share in 2023, stabilizing in the $30 to $40 range by early 2025, climbing rapidly in early 2026 on funding news, and settling at a final reading of $113.50 on May 12th, the day before the IPO pricing, corresponding to a valuation of $29.26 billion.

Forge Price's $113.50 represents a 174% deviation from the closing price of $311, let alone the opening price of $350.

Now look at the more active secondary market, Hiive. Hiive's positioning is similar to Forge, but it focuses more on active trade matching, with a user profile closer to high-net-worth individual investors and smaller VCs, and higher trading frequency than Forge. From Hiive's price chart, you can see that Cerebras' price updates are more frequent and more volatile.

Hiive's final reported transaction price was $224.93, labeled "Final Hiive Price," which was the last valid price on the platform before Cerebras' listing.

$224.93 is much more accurate than Forge's $113.50, but it still has a 38% deviation from the closing price of $311 and a 56% deviation from the opening price of $350.

The reason Hiive's figure is more accurate than Forge's is that its transactions occurred later and were more frequent, capturing more market sentiment close to the IPO. However, it remains a one-way market; only real equity is bought and sold, with no short-selling mechanism or 24/7 continuous matching.

Let's now look at TradeXYZ.

Launched on May 1st with an initial reference price of $175 and a maximum leverage of 5x, anyone in the world with a USDC wallet could participate, going long or short.

Within two weeks, the on-chain Pre-IPO Perp traded steadily in the $288 to $320 range. At 10 PM on May 14th, three hours before Nasdaq officially opened for retail trading, the on-chain contract price for CBRS rapidly surged from the $290 range to $380, with single-hour trading volume approaching $100 million. Total 24-hour volume reached $280 million, with open interest of $57.77 million, making it the fourth most actively traded stock contract on the platform.

Some might say TradeXYZ was just lucky this time, and its accurate pricing was merely a coincidence.

But this rebuttal overlooks a more important point: TradeXYZ's accurate pricing isn't accidental; it's structural.

Why TradeXYZ's Pricing is More Accurate

To understand why TradeXYZ's pricing is more accurate, one must first understand why investment banks have monopolized IPO pricing power for so long.

The functioning of the traditional IPO pricing mechanism relies on a core premise: all judgments about "what this company is worth" must be aggregated through the banks' order book.

The CEO and CFO travel to major financial centers, meeting all key institutional investors within two weeks, telling the company story one-on-one, and collecting price indications. These indications all flow into the order book controlled by the underwriters.

No one knows what Fidelity bid, how many shares BlackRock subscribed for, or what Tiger Global's indicative price was. The investment bank is the only one with full visibility.

This information asymmetry creates the banks' bargaining power. They can set the price at a level "to clear the order book while leaving enough first-day pop for institutions." This is an art. If the order book is 20 times oversubscribed, it means all institutions know $185 is low; but the bank locks this information away, sets the offering price at $185, institutions pocket an 89% first-day gain, and they'll come back for the next roadshow.

However, when a 24/7 market exists that allows anyone to participate, allows short-selling, and has all positions verifiable in real-time on-chain, price information no longer needs to be aggregated through an order book.

The higher the barrier, the worse the pricing. The more open it is, the more accurate the pricing.

TradeXYZ allows global participation without asset thresholds, geographical restrictions, or an invitation system. Every trade, every order is participants publicly expressing their judgment on Cerebras' value with real money.

This means TradeXYZ's price aggregates a much broader set of information than any roadshow—not just institutional judgment, but also the judgment of all market participants aware of this IPO opportunity. More information sources mean prices closer to true value.

At the same time, the short-selling mechanism makes it harder for the price to be distorted.

Forge and Hiive are fundamentally one-way markets. Sellers are employees or early investors looking to cash out, while buyers are accredited investors bullish on the company. No one can publicly bet that "I think this company is overvalued" because the channel for short-selling simply doesn't exist.

This creates a systematic bias: prices in a one-way market can only be driven upward by pressure, bearish forces have no outlet, and the resulting price will systematically lean towards optimism.

TradeXYZ allows shorting. Anyone who believes Cerebras is overvalued can open a short position with margin, expressing their judgment with real capital. This two-way competition is a necessary condition for price equilibrium, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears makes it harder for prices to be dominated by a single sentiment.

Most importantly, Forge Price updates once a day; it's the output of an algorithmic model, not a real-time market transaction. Hiive's trades are discrete, possibly occurring days apart. During the roadshow, banks release price signals to the market only every few days, each time selectively.

TradeXYZ is a continuously operating matching market, updating prices every 3 seconds. For example, when news of Sam Altman appearing in a roadshow video breaks, or rumors leak that Arm and SoftBank tried to acquire Cerebras, or news circulates that the order book oversubscription multiple went from 10x to 20x, the price moves immediately.

The Pre-IPO frenzy this year is just beginning.

Cerebras is just the first. Later this year, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public. This will be the largest batch of tech IPOs in human history, with total fundraising potentially exceeding hundreds of billions of dollars.

And this means that Hyperliquid and TradeXYZ will continue to disrupt Wall Street's perception and command more pricing power.