8万美元的比特币：复苏明确，但牛市信念尚缺

Original Author: Glassnode

Original Translation: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

Bitcoin has returned above $80,000, with improvements in ETF inflows, spot demand, and positioning. However, weaker capital inflows and heavy overhead supply near $86,000 keep market conviction below that of previous bull market phases.

Summary

• US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned clearly positive again. As Bitcoin recovered from the mid-$60,000 range to the low $80,000s, institutional demand is reigniting.
• Bitcoin’s Relative Unrealized Loss peaked at 25% of market cap during the February sell-off, then compressed to 8% after reclaiming $80,000. This supports the view of a shallow bear market if the $60,000 level holds.
• The 30-day net position change of Realized Cap has recovered to $2.8 billion per month, indicating improving capital inflows. However, this remains far below the over $10 billion per month seen during previous bull market expansions.
• The 30-day cost basis at $76,900 provides short-term immediate support, while the $86,900 accumulation zone from November to February remains a key near-term resistance level for the recovery.
• The Coinbase spot volume delta has turned sharply positive over the past two weeks, suggesting increasingly aggressive buyer activity and strengthening spot market demand.
• Hyperliquid traders have steadily rebuilt long exposure as prices rise, reflecting improved speculative sentiment and increased confidence in further upside continuation.
• Implied volatility continues to compress across the curve, led by the front end, while realized volatility trends lower, signaling the market is pricing in a calmer short-term environment.
• Skew compression indicates weakening demand for downside hedging, with options structure around $80,000 becoming more balanced.
• Market maker positioning remains a key driver of short-term dynamics. A large negative gamma cluster near $82,000 could still amplify price moves if spot re-enters that zone.

Macro Overview

The macro backdrop remains a tug-of-war between slowing growth and sticky inflation. Recent US inflation data came in stronger than expected, while the labor market has proven more resilient than many anticipated. Consequently, markets have pushed back expectations for rate cuts, keeping bond yields high and financial conditions relatively tight.

Liquidity remains a key driver for risk assets. Equities continue to grind higher, but beneath the surface, the environment remains fragile as markets adapt to a higher-for-longer interest rate reality. Meanwhile, strength in oil and commodities continues to fuel inflation expectations, especially amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

For digital assets, the picture remains constructive but selective. Despite tighter liquidity conditions and a strong US dollar, Bitcoin has shown resilience, suggesting underlying demand remains intact. However, softer ETF inflows and high real yields imply that more sustained upside may require easier financial conditions or a new catalyst to reignite broader risk appetite.

On-Chain Insights

From Fear to Uncertainty

Against the macro backdrop of sticky inflation, high bond yields, and tighter financial conditions, Bitcoin continues to show relative resilience, suggesting underlying demand remains intact even as the broader risk environment stays unsettled. To structurally assess the current cycle's position, the Relative Unrealized Loss – which measures the total dollar value of unrealized losses held by all investors as a percentage of market cap – provides a precise cyclical barometer. During the February flash crash, this metric peaked at 25% of market cap. While indicating significant stress, this reading was still far below the extreme levels recorded in previous bear cycles. After subsequently reclaiming $80,000, the metric has compressed to around 8%. This shift has moved mainstream sentiment from fear towards uncertainty, rather than capitulation.

If $60,000 proves to be the cycle low, this bear market would be the shallowest on record – registering fear but falling far short of the broad washouts that historically marked durable cycle bottoms.

Scale of Capital Inflows

As sentiment shifts from fear to uncertainty, the key question is whether the current rally is a typical bear market bounce or an early stage of a genuine bull market transition. The most direct measure is net capital inflow, tracked by the 30-day net position change of Realized Cap, which monitors the monthly change in total capital stored on-chain. Following the recent rally to $82,000, this metric has reached $2.8 billion per month. This positive reading explains the constructive momentum seen in recent weeks.

However, context is crucial: during the early stages of each major leg up in the 2023-2025 bull market, this metric rapidly accelerated from around $2 billion per month to over $10 billion. While encouraging, the current reading remains far below this threshold, indicating that the capital inflows supporting this recovery lack the conviction seen at similar inflection points in previous cycles.

Support and Resistance Through Cost Basis Lenses

Despite a 37% rally from $60,000 to $82,000, capital inflows remain moderate and uncertainty persists. The Realized Price metric, segmented by holding period, provides a granular framework for identifying the most immediate support and resistance levels. This model tracks the average purchase price of coins by holding period, mapping behavioral anchors of different investor groups onto the price chart.

The current rally is primarily driven by the accumulation wave of the past 30 days. The cost basis for this group currently sits around $76,900, forming the most immediate support floor in the short term. Above, the cost basis for investors who accumulated during the November-to-February consolidation zone is concentrated near $86,900. As these holders approach break-even and face increasing distribution incentives, this represents the most likely resistance zone in the near term.

Off-Chain Insights

Rebuilding ETF Demand

US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have turned decisively positive in recent weeks, with sustained inflows returning as Bitcoin reclaimed the $80,000 level. After months of uneven demand and significant outflows in Q1, this latest shift indicates that institutional demand is beginning to re-emerge in a more meaningful way.

Importantly, the revival in ETF demand has maintained consistency, rather than being driven by a single, large allocation surge, suggesting institutions are steadily accumulating as market conditions improve. Inflow intensity has also accelerated alongside price, reinforcing the view that traditional capital is again supporting momentum rather than exiting during rallies.

The current structure shows significant market structure improvement compared to earlier this year. ETF inflows now serve as a tailwind rather than a source of sustained selling pressure, removing one of the key headwinds that previously constrained recovery attempts. If sustained, continued institutional accumulation could provide Bitcoin with the demand base needed to challenge higher overhead supply zones in the coming weeks.

Coinbase Spot Buying Re-Accelerates

The Coinbase spot volume delta has turned sharply positive over the past two weeks, with aggressive buyer activity returning as Bitcoin reclaimed the low $80,000s. This latest shift contrasts sharply with the persistent selling pressure that characterized most of Q1, where negative volume delta continuously reinforced downside momentum.

Importantly, the latest leg higher has been accompanied by repeated increases in positive spot buying volume, rather than isolated buying surges, suggesting consistent demand is beginning to absorb overhead supply. The strengthening of Coinbase activity is also highly correlated with the revival in ETF inflows, indicating that US-based and institutional buyers are re-engaging.

The current structure suggests spot demand is again acting as a supporting force for price, rather than a source of distribution. Continued strength in Coinbase buyer flow, especially rising in tandem with ETF inflows, indicates improving market conviction and healthier underlying demand conditions for the latest rally.

Hyperliquid Traders Turn Increasingly Bullish

Over the past few weeks, positioning on Hyperliquid has shifted increasingly towards longs, with BTC net positioning steadily rising as Bitcoin recovered to the low $80,000s. This shift marks a significant reversal from the persistent short bias that dominated most of the first quarter, when the market fell to the low $60,000s.

Importantly, the recent increase in long exposure has been gradual rather than a surge via a single crowded position, indicating traders are steadily rebuilding directional bullish exposure as market conditions improve. Net positioning is now approaching its most bullish bias since late 2025, reflecting increased confidence in upside continuation.

The persistence of long positioning alongside rising price action suggests improved trader sentiment and a more constructive speculative backdrop. However, increasingly crowded long exposure could make the market more sensitive to short-term volatility and liquidation-driven pullbacks.

Implied Volatility Declines

Over the past week, Bitcoin implied volatility has turned lower, with the front month falling from 39% to 34.6%. Longer-dated tenors have followed suit, declining roughly 1 to 2 volatility points across the curve.

This move reflects a broader repricing of the term structure lower, as traders reduce expectations for short-term realized volatility. The decline follows a recent volatility spike and accompanies more controlled spot action, reinforcing the view that the market is returning to a calmer regime.

As implied volatility compresses, option costs across tenors are decreasing, most notably at the front end which is most sensitive to short-term positioning and demand changes.

The current structure reflects that the market is pricing in fewer large moves ahead, with volatility supply continuing to outstrip demand across the curve.

Volatility Risk Premium Remains Positive

While implied volatility continues to compress across the curve, realized volatility has declined even faster. Bitcoin's 30-day realized volatility currently stands at 30.48%, having declined steadily over the past few weeks as spot action remained relatively controlled.

Meanwhile, front-month implied volatility remains around 36.4%, meaning implied continues to exceed realized, maintaining a positive volatility risk premium. In other words, options continue to price in more volatility ahead than Bitcoin's recent spot action has delivered.

The spread between implied and realized volatility has also been rebuilding over the past two to three weeks, recovering to near 6 volatility points after briefly compressing towards flat in April. This suggests that despite the overall volatility reset lower, option demand relative to realized volatility remains elevated.

Consequently, while overall volatility continues to soften in both implied and realized dimensions, hedging conditions remain favorable for volatility sellers.

Skew Compression Indicates Weakening Downside Hedging Demand

As volatility expectations continue to reset lower, skew is also normalizing across the curve. This move is most pronounced at the front end, with 1-week 25-delta skew compressing from around -10% to -4% over the past week. Longer tenors have softened in tandem, with the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month tenors all losing roughly 1 to 2 points of put premium.

Notably, this compression is occurring against a backdrop of Bitcoin consolidating around the $80,000 range and a less supportive macro environment. The options surface is not showing increased demand for downside protection, but rather continuing to reprice towards a more balanced structure.

This upward move reflects that the premium for put options relative to call options is steadily decreasing, indicating that demand for downside protection across the curve is gradually waning rather than strengthening.

While skew remains in negative territory across tenors, the continued compression suggests that demand for downside hedges is gradually easing rather than intensifying.

Market Maker Gamma Keeps Spot Sensitive Near $82,000

Market maker positioning continues to create reactive structures around the current price level. The largest concentration of negative gamma is at the $82,000 strike, with exposure of approximately $2.6 billion, while positive gamma accumulates near $85,000, close to $1.8 billion.

With spot still below the negative gamma cluster at $82,000, a re-entry into that zone could trigger reactive market maker hedging flows, reinforcing momentum and amplifying price action. Higher up, the concentration of positive gamma near $85,000 could act to suppress volatility.

Flows also reflect shifts in positioning. Over the past 7 days, put buying accounted for 71% of premium flow, reflecting high demand for downside protection during the recent consolidation. Over the last 24 hours, 58% of flows came from put selling, indicating some of this hedging is being unwound.

This structure leaves the market increasingly sensitive to amplified hedging flows should spot re-enter the large negative gamma cluster near $82,000.

Conclusion

In summary, Bitcoin's recovery continues to strengthen beneath the surface, with spot-led demand, reignited ETF inflows, and improved speculative positioning contributing to a more constructive market structure. The sharp compression in Relative Unrealized Loss, along with the stabilization of key on-chain profitability and liquidity metrics, suggests the February decline is increasingly viewed as a cyclical reset rather than the start of a deeper bear market.

At the same time, the characteristics of this rally differ markedly from the aggressive expansions seen during the 2023-2025 period. Capital inflows are recovering but remain far below previous breakout thresholds, while volatility compression and calmer derivatives positioning point to a market rebuilding confidence gradually, rather than entering a euphoric phase. This makes the current uptrend look more like a structurally supported recovery than a fully confirmed momentum breakout.

With Bitcoin now re-entering the dense overhead supply zone between $82,000 and $87,000, the market is entering territory where price discovery becomes increasingly important. Sustaining a foothold in this zone will likely require stronger spot participation and deeper capital rotation to absorb the remaining overhead supply. Until then, the broader structure continues to improve, but conviction appears to be rebuilding rather than fully returned.