Strategy's Valuation Drops Below Bitcoin Holdings, mNAV Falls Below 1 for the First Time, Attracting Market Attention

Odaily reports that Strategy's enterprise valuation has fallen below the value of its Bitcoin holdings, with its Market value to Net Asset Value ratio (mNAV) dropping below 1 for the first time, marking a shift in the market's valuation logic for the company.

Data shows that Strategy's current stock price is approximately $82, down about 85% from its all-time high in November 2024. The company's enterprise value is around $50.4 billion, while the value of its Bitcoin holdings is approximately $51.1 billion (based on a Bitcoin price of around $60,000). This indicates that the market currently values the entire company at less than the value of the Bitcoin it holds.

For a long time, the market valued Strategy significantly higher than its Bitcoin reserves, allowing the company to raise capital at a premium and continuously accumulate more Bitcoin. This model was considered a cornerstone of Michael Saylor's capital strategy. However, now that mNAV has fallen below 1, raising capital by issuing new shares could potentially dilute existing shareholders.

Analysts point out that this change also makes Strategy's valuation structure more similar to a "closed-end fund," reminiscent of the discount trading state the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust experienced in different market cycles. Such structures typically lack effective arbitrage mechanisms, making it difficult for discounts or premiums to correct quickly.

However, unlike traditional closed-end funds, Strategy still possesses a variety of capital tools, including debt financing, equity financing, cash flow from its software business, and capital structure restructuring, which theoretically provides it with a degree of flexibility to navigate market volatility. (CoinDesk)