Polymarket's hardest prediction is... when the POLY airdrop will happen

Original: Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author: Asher (@Asher_0210)

Yesterday, the "World Cup Winner" prediction event settled with a trading volume of $43.2 billion, surpassing the $36.86 billion of the "2024 U.S. Presidential Election Winner" to become the highest-volume single prediction event in Polymarket's history.

Furthermore, during the six weeks of the entire World Cup, the cumulative notional trading volume for Polymarket's soccer category reached $85 billion, which is four times the total trading volume of all other sports combined during the same period.

The 2024 U.S. election brought Polymarket into the mainstream spotlight, and the 2026 World Cup propelled it into the higher-frequency trading arena of sports markets. With $85 billion over six weeks and $43.2 billion in a single market, Polymarket has not only set new records but also discovered a traffic engine that runs faster than elections.

Capitalizing on World Cup Traffic, Polymarket Quietly Raises Fees in the Sports Category

On July 10, during the final stage of the World Cup, Polymarket increased trading fees for the sports market.

This adjustment was not announced directly to regular users but appeared in the platform's developer Changelog. The Taker fee multiplier for the sports category was raised from 0.03 to 0.05, while the Maker rebate rate was reduced from 25% to 15%.

While the fee increase from 0.03 to 0.05 might seem minor, it actually raises the effective trading cost by nearly 70%. Taking the purchase of 100 shares of a sports event as an example, when the share price is $0.50, the fee reaches its maximum. Before the adjustment, users paid a maximum of $0.75; after the adjustment, the maximum fee increased to $1.25. As the share price approaches $0.01 or $0.99, the fee symmetrically decreases towards either end, as detailed in the table below.

Consequently, the sports category is no longer part of Polymarket's lowest fee tier. Previously, it was categorized alongside Politics, Finance, and Technology as a lower-cost trading category for the platform. Following the adjustment, the maximum fee per 100 shares has risen to $1.25, placing it in the same tier as Economy, Culture, and Weather, and only lower than the Crypto market's $1.75.

Looking back over the past six months, Polymarket's fee scope has been quietly expanding.

In January 2026, Polymarket first introduced Taker fees for its 15-minute crypto market. In February, the fee scope expanded to include some College Basketball and Serie A markets. In March, all newly listed crypto markets began charging fees. After introducing Fee Structure V2 at the end of March, categories like Politics, Finance, Economy, Culture, Weather, and Technology were also gradually included.

For the platform, once user habits are established, increasing fees hasn't led to widespread user attrition but has allowed the same trading volume to generate more revenue.

POLY Airdrop Controversy Reignites: How Much Longer Will Users Have to Wait?

Recently, the community discovered that Polymarket's official associated account, Polymarket Traders, deleted a tweet posted on May 13. The original tweet was interpreted by the community as a hint towards a POLY airdrop. Following the deletion, many users began re-examining the account's historical content, and discussions regarding whether "the airdrop plans have changed" have heated up once again.

The market's sensitivity stems from the fact that speculation about Polymarket launching a token is not unfounded. In October 2025, Polymarket's Chief Marketing Officer, Matthew Modabber, explicitly stated in a podcast: "There will be a token, and there will be an airdrop." He also mentioned that Polymarket's primary goal at the time was to return to the U.S. market, and the token plan would proceed after establishing its U.S. operations, while also praising Hyperliquid's approach to token issuance.

This statement once led the community to believe that a POLY token was just a matter of time. Subsequently, many users began to consider trading volume, market-making scale, and active days as potential factors for airdrop eligibility. Even though the platform never officially announced a snapshot date or distribution rules, users remained willing to continue trading, awaiting the actual implementation of the token launch plan.

The issue is that, despite the U.S. business progressing and the peak-interest World Cup concluding, Polymarket has still not announced a timeline for POLY. Attentive users noticed that in the Help Center section of Polymarket's official website, a recent clarification states that the platform "has not announced any plans for an airdrop or token generation event," and warns users to be cautious of scams conducted under the guise of an airdrop. This doesn't necessarily mean POLY is cancelled, but for users who have been waiting for a long time, the question is no longer whether Polymarket will issue a token, but rather how much longer this "future" will be delayed.

Currently, the community largely holds two views on the reason for the delay. One perspective suggests that Polymarket is waiting for a more suitable compliance window. The platform is still expanding its U.S. operations, and token issuance and airdrops could introduce additional regulatory complications. Before finalizing the official plan, deleting overly direct hints from associated accounts might simply be a move to tighten external messaging.

The other view is that Polymarket no longer feels an urgent need to launch its token, potentially becoming the next OpenSea. In the past, the platform relied on the anticipation of an airdrop to attract users, boost trading volume, and supplement liquidity. Now, Polymarket already boasts a massive user base and real revenue, and its fees are steadily increasing. As the platform's dependency on its token decreases, the priority for POLY naturally may continue to be pushed back.

Previously, the community discussed *how* POLY would be airdropped and whether trading volume would count towards eligibility. Now, the discussion has shifted to *how much longer* the wait will be, and what the next anticipated milestone might be. Polymarket, which has launched countless prediction events, still cannot provide a settlement date for its own airdrop.