A former NYSE market maker: BTC bottoming depends on these 7 signals, don't just watch one price

Organized & Translated by: TechFlow

Guest: Eric Krown, former NYSE Arca options market maker, now full-time crypto trader, founder of the YouTube channel Krown's Crypto Cave

Host: Alessandro, from Crypto Banter's "Risk Takers" show

Podcast Source: Crypto Banter

Original Title: The Exact Bitcoin Levels That Decide the Next Move | Krown

Air Date: July 19, 2026

Disclaimer: Krown has publicly stated he bought spot BTC in the low $60,000s. He also operates a paid trading course and has affiliate links to exchanges (ByBit, BloFin, etc.). This content is purely technical analysis and does not involve promotion of specific projects or tokens.

Key Takeaways

Eric Krown is a former NYSE Arca options market maker with over 15 years of trading experience. He began learning equity options as a teenager at the Pacific Exchange, later became an Authorized Market Maker at NYSE Arca, and transitioned to full-time crypto trading several years ago. This is his fourth appearance on Alessandro's "Risk Takers" show, a monthly series that has been tracking one core question in real-time: where is Bitcoin's macro bottom?

The biggest informational takeaway from this episode is that Krown has assembled all the converging monthly signals into a complete checklist. The 55 EMA recovery level at $63,735, the stochastic crossover trigger at $64,371, the bi-weekly MACD histogram's 168-day cycle pointing to early August, and the LTI tool's strong buy signal from January, after which price has retraced 22.64% (highly consistent with the 20-22% retracements in previous cycles). He clearly states that if BTC's monthly candle closes above $63,735, he has 85% confidence that a macro bottom is forming. On the other side, the Fear & Greed Index has stayed at 20 or below for two or three consecutive months, market sentiment is extremely bearish, yet price has already staged a major reversal. This divergence has appeared at every macro low in history.

Highlights of Key Insights

On the psychological trap of "waiting for $50,000"

"Everyone is screaming for $40k to $50k, but if you divide BTC by the M2 money supply, it has already retested the flash crash low from August 2024, which was $49,270. The number you're looking for, adjusted for inflation, has already been given to you."

On the monthly 55 EMA

"After BTC broke below the 55 EMA in 2022, it took about half a year to reclaim it. Once reclaimed, the bull market officially began. In 2018, it only lost it for two monthly candles before reclaiming it. Now, all it needs is for the July close to be above $63,735, and that level is reclaimed."

On the 168-day cycle

"In 2018, from the MACD histogram low to the actual price low, it was 168 days. In 2022, also 168 days. This cycle, the trendline has already been triggered. Counting 168 days forward lands you right at the beginning of August, perfectly overlapping with the monthly close and the stochastic crossover window."

On market sentiment

"The Fear & Greed Index is at 28, after being below 20 for two or three consecutive months. Price has reversed from its lows, but sentiment is still in the basement. Look back at 2015, 2019, 2022 – every macro low has this exact recipe."

On traditional market rotation

"The semiconductor index has rallied 300% from April 2025 to now. I called a top there in early July. Profits are moving into biotech (IBB) and the industrial sector. But the SPY chart is not bearish. I don't see any signals for a macro top, at least not until Q4."

On Gold and Copper

"Gold topped in January, right on its 10-year cycle, and will likely be sideways or down for the next few years. Copper is different. It just broke out of a 20-year consolidation range starting in 2006, with a target of around $8. Copper is a direct proxy for AI data center construction."

Chapter 1: Adjusting BTC for Inflation Using M2 Money Supply

Alessandro: Last month, you said that if BTC hung around $60k into the summer, it would start looking really good. Do you still think that?

Krown: Yes, and I am now about 85% confident that a macro low is being confirmed with this month's close. Let's start with a perspective I think is severely overlooked. A lot of people are waiting for BTC at $40k to $50k – many big voices and retail investors are calling for this range. But if you look at BTC divided by the M2 money supply, the picture is completely different. This chart uses money supply as the denominator, effectively standardizing for inflation.

The same thing happened in 2022. Everyone was calling for $10k, $8k. But if you standardize by M2, BTC had actually already reached the equivalent of $10,000 in November of that year. I said on my channel back then, if you're waiting for $10k to $11k, it's already arrived on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Now, it's deja vu. The $50k and below you're waiting for? Adjusted for M2, BTC has already retested the flash crash low of August 2024, which was $49,270. The number you want has been given to you; you're just not using the right measuring stick. Money supply has increased 40% to 50% since 2020, but we're treating the dollar as a constant to measure asset prices. That's a cognitive bias in itself.

Alessandro: I've also used the BTC/M2 chart to show that BTC is the only asset making higher highs and higher lows against money supply. Both the S&P 500 and Gold are actually making lower lows against M2.

Krown: Exactly. The S&P only recently broke its 1999 high against M2. Everything is related to money supply; nothing operates in a vacuum.

Chapter 2: The Monthly 55 EMA at $63,735 is the First Confirmation Signal

Alessandro: Let's get into specific price levels. You mentioned the monthly 55 EMA last time. What's the situation now?

Krown: Let's start with the simplest. The 55 EMA on the monthly timeframe has historically been a key level for confirming macro lows in BTC. In 2022, after BTC broke below it, it took about half a year to stay under it. Once reclaimed, it was a major signal, and the bull run started from there. In 2018, it only lost two monthly closes before reclaiming it, followed by a massive rally. Going back to 2015 and 2014, despite limited data, the 55 EMA also acted as a base for bottoms.

Now: If BTC closes this month above $63,735, it will have reclaimed the 55 EMA. We are currently trading right around this level. There are about 11 to 12 trading days left in the month, and so far, so good. This signal is very specific and very easy to track. Even if you're the most hardened bear, you have to admit that this is at least a major low, and BTC will likely bounce back above $70k.

For short-term confirmation, I'd also need to see a close above the $65,500 high. But on the monthly level, $63,735 is the first hard metric.

Chapter 3: The Triple Convergence of Monthly MACD, RSI, and Stochastic

Alessandro: What about the monthly MACD?

Krown: The monthly MACD is showing a momentum weakening signal. July marks the first "awesome momentum signal" since April. Historically, every time the monthly MACD momentum starts to weaken, the low has either already been seen or is so close you might as well just enter the position. That was the case in 2015 – the low was already in. In 2019, the reversal happened almost right on that bar. In 2022, despite the extreme FTX collapse event later, if you bought when the MACD signal appeared, you were only one month early to the final low. In the long run, you'd be very happy.

Regarding the RSI, the monthly RSI is now roughly at the same level as the 2022 low, perhaps slightly lower, and is below the level of all previous macro lows in BTC's history. Multiple momentum oscillators are corroborating the same story from the same position.

Then there's the monthly Stochastic Oscillator. It has already dipped into the oversold territory below 20, a classic low signal. The next confirmation is waiting for an upward cross. Every time this crossover has occurred, the low was already in. I've tracked data back to 2012, and there hasn't been a single exception.

Here's a key number: I worked backwards. If BTC closes the month at $64,371 or above, it will force the stochastic to make an upward cross. So you have two trigger levels in a very narrow range: $63,735 to reclaim the 55 EMA, and $64,371 to trigger the stochastic crossover. If both hit, combined with the MACD momentum signal and the low RSI, even the biggest bear would have to start considering whether this is the macro bottom.

Chapter 4: The 168-Day Cycle Points to Early August

Alessandro: What about the bi-weekly MACD histogram trendline you mentioned before?

Krown: This is one of the tools I used to publicly call the macro low in 2022 in advance. Looking at the MACD histogram on the bi-weekly timeframe, you can draw a downtrend line starting in 2018. Every time the histogram touches this line, a low forms. Note that the low in the MACD histogram is not the same as the low in price; there's a time lag.

But this time lag is remarkably consistent. In 2018, from the MACD histogram low to the actual price macro low: 168 days. In 2022: also 168 days. To the day.

This cycle, the trendline has already been triggered. Counting 168 days forward from that trigger puts you in early August. This perfectly overlaps with the window for the monthly 55 EMA reclaim and the stochastic crossover. Everything is converging at the same point in time.

Alessandro: So all these signals you're seeing aren't isolated; they're synchronously pointing to the same conclusion?

Krown: Yes, that's why I'm saying 85% confidence. Any single indicator can be wrong. But when five or six independent signals trigger within the same week, the probability is overwhelmingly in your favor. It's like World Cup odds. France might be the biggest favorite, going from 15% probability to 40%. But the combined probability of all other teams was always higher. You can have great reasons to bet on France, but you're probably wrong.

Alessandro: Same with trading; you never have 100% certainty.

Krown: Never. But when you have a probabilistic edge, you just bet on the higher probability. You don't need to be right every time. In a market like BTC, you just need to be right on one big move.

Chapter 5: The LTI Tool and the 22% Rule

Alessandro: What about your LTI (Long-Term Investor) tool? Last time, you mentioned it gave a buy signal.

Krown: The LTI is a long-term tool that combines volatility, momentum, dates, and other fundamental factors. Every time it gives a strong buy signal, price typically has about a 20% downside remaining to the final low. Let me quickly recap the history.

In December 2014, the first strong buy signal appeared. The drawdown from the signal to the next closing low was 22.90%. In 2018, it was 20.61%. In June 2022, the signal appeared, and the drawdown to the macro closing low was 20.65%. This cycle, the strong buy signal appeared in January 2026. From the signal to the current closing low, we've already seen a drawdown of 22.64%. Four signals, and the drawdowns are all within the 20-23% range. Remarkably consistent.

My judgment on a macro low has a prerequisite: the weekly trend must officially reverse. Right now, all higher timeframes are still in a downtrend; that's a fact. But if the monthly closes above the numbers we discussed, I will move from 80% to 85% confidence. This doesn't mean BTC can't rally to $75k first and then drop back to $65k, but the bottom structure is forming.

Chapter 6: Fear & Greed Index at 28 – Classic Divergence of Price and Sentiment

Alessandro: What are your thoughts on market sentiment?

Krown: The Fear & Greed Index is at 28 now, after being below 20 for two or three consecutive months. Based on my YouTube analytics data, viewership is also down a lot. But the people who remain are extremely bearish.

This is a classic divergence: market sentiment is in the basement, but price has already completed a major reversal from its lows. This configuration appeared at every macro low in 2015, 2019, and 2022. People think they are going against the crowd, but they *are* the crowd. The crowd is bearish, and very certain about it.

Even if the macro low hasn't been hit yet, I don't think there's much downside left. The worst-case scenario is a multi-month rally. $60,000 is my key level – a confluence of psychological and technical levels. As long as BTC is above it, I treat it as a major low, possibly a macro low. A weekly or bi-weekly close below $60,000 would break a lot of structures.

Alessandro: So your invalidation is a bi-weekly or 10-day close below $60,000?

Krown: Exactly. Technically, you would need to see a bi-weekly or at least a 10-day close below $60,000 to start breaking these signals. Below that, a lot of things fall apart. But I'm not seeing that sign yet.

Chapter 7: The 4-Year Cycle? Don't Care; August is a Neighbor to October

Alessandro: What about the 4-year cycle? Do you think this low will come before October?

Krown: Honestly, I've stopped caring about the 4-year cycle narrative. Everyone on YouTube reads that "BTC bottoms a year after it tops, so the low must be in October." But how do you define the top? Using the BTC/M2 chart, the high occurs at a different time. I see low signals and act on them. I don't care what the history textbook says is the exact day.

Alessandro: But it's only July. If the bottom is now or in a month or two, you have to admit the 4-year cycle is right again.

Krown: Sure, July is only three months away from October. It's close enough that you can tip your hat and say, "Okay, it was right again." I don't need to pinpoint October 16th. You don't need to be perfect to make a lot of money in this market. But if BTC makes a new low in October, I would be very skeptical that it is the real bottom, because it would mean the technicals have been damaged much more deeply.

Chapter 8: Semiconductors Topping, Rotation into Biotech and Copper

Alessandro: You mentioned a rotation happening in traditional markets. Can you elaborate?

Krown: Semiconductors are the biggest topic. Names like NVIDIA, Intel, Micron – I publicly called a top there in early July. The semiconductor index had rallied over 300% from April 2025. Just holding the index would have tripled your money. People are taking profits, which is completely understandable.

But I'm not bearish on traditional markets. Rotation is not a bear market. Money coming out of semiconductors is flowing into biotech. IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) just had a daily breakout, and I think it will continue to rally into year-end. There might be a short-term pullback to the 180 area for a buying opportunity. The industrial sector is also strengthening.

The SPY chart is not bearish. It might pull back to the 7200 area, but it remains bullish into Q4. I don't see any signs of a macro top now, at least not until October or November. QQQ is weaker in the short term, and there might be another flash crash in early August (it's happened for the past few years), but it will resume its uptrend afterward.

Alessandro: The memory ETF has also given back half its gains, but the index hasn't been affected much. Apple is the biggest company again – that's crazy.

Krown: Apple's chart looks great. It has at least 3 to 6 more months of upside. That's how the market works: one sector tops, money flows to the next, and the index continues to climb. It's been this way since 2008. People