Odaily Editorial Chat (July 1st)

This is an "informal" column from within the Odaily editorial department. Here, the author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their finer details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being verified—they may not be direct "wealth codes" but could simply be questions themselves; shares observations gained from communicating with industry practitioners; and presents materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced in losing money). Its purpose is solely to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram Group, X Official Account) to discuss, question, and joke around with us.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Introduction: Options enthusiast, Meme bag holder

Share: In terms of operations, I bought Spacex around 150 last Friday. The logic for buying was its inclusion in the Russell Index and the Nasdaq 100. The latter's effective date is July 6th, and I plan to sell before the deadline.

Also, last night, Circle, the first stablecoin stock, faced a wave of FUD—Open Standard, backed by 140 enterprises, came on strong, planning to issue OUSD to grab a share of the stablecoin pie. As a result, CRCL dropped 17%. In my opinion, OUSD will not pose a major threat to USDC, and CRCL is worth buying on the dip: First, the model OUSD champions, where stablecoin reserve yields belong to partners, has been tried before by Paxos. Their issued USDG has accumulated a total circulation of less than 3 billion since its launch in 2024, only 4% of USDC's market cap. OUSD's future development prospects are currently exaggerated. Second, USDC's compliance threshold gives it a cycle-long lead over competitors. Even if competitors retrace the same path and replicate the business model, it would take them over 5 years to truly go public. Until then, CRCL remains the only stablecoin stock available to buy.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Introduction: Tea-filling junior, crypto bystander, media observer

Share: 1. Circle (CRCL) was hit hard by Open USD, with its stock price falling to lows. But personally, I feel that although OUSD appears to have gathered over 140 institutions, it cannot win the large-scale application war for stablecoins. This is because the more institutions involved, the harder it sometimes is to integrate and coordinate. In the short term, it remains highly dependent on collaboration between institutions. As for how well they cooperate, just think about the processes of traditional banks. So, I lean towards buying some around 56-60, then waiting for a rebound to around 85-90. Although the current performance is poor, CRCL's long-term target is still 150, mainly depending on the passage time of the Clarity Act.

2. Previously, Jukan from Citrini mentioned that memory is more important than graphics card chips. I personally agree with this view. Therefore, Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Samsung still hold monopoly roles in the industry; this also includes CXMT, which is having its IPO this month. Viewed from a perspective of a 20%-25% pullback from the recent highs, it's approaching a zone suitable for bottom-fishing and betting on a rebound.

3. Strategy announced a $1.25 billion stock sale plan. Suddenly, I feel that STRC might be able to stabilize relative to its asset value. This is because once the selling reaches a certain level and market sentiment bottoms out, there's no more meat left to cut. Coupled with subsequent progress on dividend payments, it might still bounce back a bit. It can be viewed as a financial management play, dipping in with a small amount to test the waters. Not investment advice, just personal opinion for reference.

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Introduction: Still learning, a lot to learn

Share: My attention recently has been mainly on US stocks.

1. Semiconductors remain the world's main storyline. Under the semiconductor capacity expansion cycle, the positive impact on the entire upstream equipment supply chain is the core of this narrative. The lithography oligopoly ASML, etching champion LRCX, deposition giant AMAT, and inspection leader KLAC all hit new all-time highs last night. They are certainly expensive, but there are good reasons for it, and the positive catalysts are highly certain. In the coming years, hundreds of billions of dollars in expansion orders will flow to these equipment suppliers (refer to South Korea's 800 trillion won expansion plan).

2. SK Hynix is about to list in the US soon. Its recent performance somewhat suggests it is being undervalued intentionally (for a better post-IPO trajectory), but it also presents a good opportunity for buying the dip. I'm not considering Micron (MU) for now. After SK Hynix lists in the US, Micron's scarcity premium as the only HBM stock on the US market will be diluted. That's not to say it won't rise, but the risk-reward ratio will be less favorable compared to SK Hynix.

3. I nibbled on some Rocket Lab (RKLB) around 80-85. I wanted to buy more, but the stock price skyrocketed after the news of the Iridium acquisition broke. Currently, RKLB is still within the CEO's declared stock selling window. If there are further pullbacks, I will continue to add to my position.

4. Holding onto Robinhood (HOOD). Nothing much to say. In June, it took just three and a half weeks to hit an all-time high in stock trading volume. Prediction market revenue is also soaring. The earnings support is strong enough; just give it time for the price to break out.

5. I'm less bullish on Circle (CRCL) for now. Open USD's momentum is too strong. On the payment front, Stripe was already an obstacle in front of Circle. This time, Open USD clearly has Stripe's fingerprints all over it (the founder of its subsidiary Bridge serves as CEO of the company issuing Open USD). It seems Stripe has actively chosen to challenge Circle. Circle was probably caught off guard last night. The CEO's subsequent comments were rather nonsensical. Let's see what defensive measures they come up with next.

Asher (@Asher_0210)

Introduction: Regular schedule, long-term investment

Share: 1. I haven't deployed a large position in US stocks, patiently waiting for the crypto market bottom. My recent US stock trading has only been small experiments following group members. Since I didn't buy much, gains or losses don't feel significant. Personally, I feel the US stock market shows characteristics of a late-cycle bull market. I don't plan to increase my position at this stage and won't try to catch the final leg. For crypto, my view remains the same: patiently wait for the bottom. I will start dollar-cost averaging when BTC breaks below $50,000 and ETH breaks below $1,400. Simultaneously, I'll DCA into altcoins with high real revenue, such as HYPE, PUMP, etc.

2. My main focus is still on prediction markets. Lately, I've become obsessed with copy trading in this space. As an airdrop farmer for early-stage projects, my focus for the second half of this year remains on prediction markets. predict.fun is the main track; its value tied to a deep partnership with Binance goes without saying. On Polymarket, I'm trying to find ways to profit using the copy trading tool PPP (Recommended reading for using PPP tools: From signal monitoring to strategy copy trading, how does PPP lower the barrier to entry for Polymarket? Link: https://www.odaily.news/en/post/5211528). For now, it's a mix of daily wins and losses; the copy trading strategy is still being optimized. In other words, trading on predict.fun is solely for chasing airdrops; trading on Polymarket is solely for profit.