BitMart研究院每周热点：美联储鹰派预期升温，加密市场持续承压，RWA板块逆势突围

1. Macro Economy & Traditional Financial Markets

1. Highly Diverging US Stock Market: Signs of Slowing Growth Intertwined with Middle East Uncertainty

The US stock market exhibited high divergence last week. The S&P 500 edged down 0.22%, the Nasdaq rose 0.27%, and the Dow Jones increased 0.39%. Macro data continued to weaken: the Empire State Manufacturing Index plummeted from 19.6 to 5.7, housing starts dropped sharply to 1.177 million units, and May retail sales grew 0.4% month-over-month, indicating that the high-interest-rate environment is gradually suppressing aggregate demand.

The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims at 226,000 and the four-week moving average edging up to 223,250, providing some support for overall consumption. The structural divergence between resilient consumption and weakening real estate/manufacturing sectors complicates the Fed's policy path, as the pace of economic cooling is insufficient to quickly drive inflation lower.

2. Fed Holds Rates Steady, Half of Officials Expect Rate Hikes This Year; Warsh Changes Communication Style

The Federal Reserve voted 12-0 to hold the policy rate steady at 3.75%. Among 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, with 6 expecting more than one hike; only 1 official anticipates a rate cut this year, and 1 official did not submit economic projections. The Philadelphia Fed's "Prices Paid" index rose from 47.9 to 53.2, further reinforcing the hawkish stance.

New Chair Warsh adopted a communication style different from his predecessor, frequently mentioning "first principles," "alternative frameworks," and "terms of reference." He was the sole official in this dot plot to refuse submitting future interest rate projections, emphasizing that the Fed's core mandate is achieving price stability. This FOMC statement was almost entirely rewritten, becoming notably shorter, increasing market uncertainty about the Fed's future communication and policy path.

2. Crypto Market

1. Market Snapshot: BTC Underperforms ETH, Market Sentiment Remains in Extreme Fear

BTC fell 3.7% last week, oscillating in the $62,000-$65,000 range; ETH dropped 1.2%, hovering around $1,700. Due to BTC's noticeable underperformance relative to ETH, the BTC/ETH ratio declined 1.6%. Total crypto market cap fell 3.1%. Excluding BTC and ETH, market cap decreased 2.3%, and the altcoin market excluding the top ten tokens fell 3.0%, presenting a clear pattern of broad-based decline.

The average decline among the top 30 crypto assets was 2.5%. Only XLM recorded a significant gain of 12.2%, driven by Stellar's roadmap in RWA tokenization, payments, and enterprise settlement. Market sentiment remains in the "Extreme Fear" zone, with the Fear & Greed Index holding steady at 20. Additionally, one of the largest MEV sandwich bots on Ethereum,

jaredfromsubway.eth, suffered a reverse attack, losing approximately $7.5 million, rekindling market attention on on-chain security risks.

2. ETF Flows: BTC Net Outflows of $226.8 Million; Institutional Buying Has Yet to Resume

US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $226.8 million last week, while Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of about $10 million. Broken down by trading day, BTC ETFs saw net outflows of ~$64.09 million on June 15, a small net inflow of ~$10.06 million on June 16, and net outflows of ~$82.16 million and ~$90.66 million on June 17 and 18, respectively. The US market was closed on June 19 for the Juneteenth holiday.

For ETH ETFs, there were still small net inflows on June 15 and 16, but they turned back to net outflows from June 17 to 18, resulting in a weekly total close to a modest outflow. Overall, selling pressure eased compared to the previous week's heavy outflows, but institutional capital has yet to resume consistent buying.

3. On-Chain Data: Stablecoin Supply Stabilizes, Showing Structural Divergence

DeFiLlama data shows that as of June 22, the total stablecoin market cap stood at approximately $315.3 billion, an increase of about $287 million over 7 days (a ~0.09% rise). USDT's market share is around 59.05%. USDT decreased slightly by ~0.12% over 7 days, while USDC grew marginally by ~0.06%, indicating overall stability in mainstream settlement funds. USDS fell ~3.47% over 7 days, continuing the pattern where ecosystem-native stablecoins contract more easily in volatile environments.

USD1 and USDG grew by ~9.27% and ~6.74%, respectively, reflecting the ongoing expansion of compliance-oriented stablecoins and distribution network-based channels. USDe was roughly flat over 7 days, suggesting a slowdown in the expansion pace of yield-bearing stablecoins but no significant redemptions. BUIDL and USYC maintained modest growth, indicating persistent institutional demand for on-chain cash management tools. Overall, the stablecoin market transitioned from a contraction in total supply the previous week to stabilization and structural divergence, though capital still favors high-certainty dollar-denominated instruments.

4. Industry Narrative: STRC Below Par for Five Consecutive Weeks; Strategy's Funding Flywheel Under Pressure

STRC has traded below par value for the fifth consecutive week. The price briefly fell to around $82 before recovering to approximately $88, but weekly trading volume remained high at $1.6 billion. The nominal dividend yield has risen to 11.5%, with market discussions about a potential further increase to 11.75% or 12%. Notably, Strategy, which once declared it would "never sell Bitcoin," sold 32 BTC for the first time in late May, raising roughly $2.5 million to pay for preferred share distributions.

Strategy currently faces three potential paths: raising the STRC dividend yield (each 0.5% increase adds about $52.45 million in annual additional dividend costs); selling Bitcoin holdings to pay dividends, which would weaken its core narrative; or issuing new STRC shares below par value, which would structurally increase the long-term dividend burden. Last week, STRC accounted for 76.2% of total trading volume in Bitcoin treasury preferred securities, down from 80% the previous week. The second most traded instrument was Strive's SATA, with a 15.8% share.

This article is solely a market analysis and does not constitute any investment advice. Investment carries high risk. Please fully assess your own risk tolerance and strictly implement risk management before trading.